Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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127 FXUS64 KLUB 041918 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 218 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Main concern for today remains the threat for severe weather this afternoon which is dependent on the location of the cold front. As of 2 pm, the cold front is located along a line from the Guadalupe Mountains to Midland and is continuing to move south but gradually slowing as it does so. Based on the location of the front the severe weather threat for our area is not as high as it was earlier today however any left splitting supercell may still enter our area and pose a large hail threat mainly across our southern row of counties hence a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for those counties until 10 pm. Upper-level lift is still expected to increase as we go through the late afternoon and early evening as a shortwave swings across the forecast area. This should lead to additional shower and thunderstorm development across the South Plains and Rolling Plains which will shift east through the evening and come to an end around midnight for most locations. However, low clouds and the potential for drizzle will continue through the morning hours. These low clouds will keep temperatures mild once again overnight only dropping into the 50s. Low clouds will be slow to dissipate tomorrow but by early afternoon at least a few peaks of sun are expected. This low cloud cover will keep temperatures cool tomorrow in the upper 60s to lower 70s despite the breezy southerly winds. /WI && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Ensemble and deterministic models continue to hint at the possibility for thunderstorm development across the eastern Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle Monday afternoon and evening. An upper level trough and associated low over the western CONUS will make its way into eastern Colorado early Monday morning, which will work with the northeastward moving surface low, to push the dry-line eastward across the FA. However how far east the dry- line pushes remains uncertain, with recent model guidance suggesting slightly weaker winds which may work to keep the dry-line over our far eastern column of counties. If this were to come into fruition, we could see isolated thunderstorms develop across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and eastern Rolling Plains late Monday afternoon. The trough will quickly eject north into the High Plains Monday night allowing for zonal flow to prevail over the forecast area through mid-week. Surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies will develop Tuesday tightening the pressure gradient across the region. This will lead to breezy southwest winds Tuesday and Wednesday around 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. These breezy conditions in combination with warm temperatures and dry conditions may lead to elevated to near critical fire weather concerns across the Caprock. By Thursday we will finally find some relief from the warmer temperatures as a vertically stacked low over the High Plains elongates across the southwestern United States which will sling a cold front across the region into the early morning hours Thursday. No precipitation is expected with this front sadly but will provide much cooler temperatures through the end of the week in the 60s and 70s. Our next chance of precipitation arrives Saturday as a shortwave trough begin to approach the region from western CONUS. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 MVFR to IFR ceilings continue to remain in place at all three TAF sites early this afternoon. Clearing will be slow to occur however VFR conditions are expected to return to the three TAF sites for at least a few hours this evening. Showers and thunderstorms should develop south of KLBB this afternoon and move to the northeast. It currently appears that this activity should stay south and east of the TAF sites so no prevailing mention has been included in the TAF at this time however trends will be closely monitored through the afternoon and evening for possible inclusion. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to blossom once again late tonight and remain in place through the end of this TAF period at all sites. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...58