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000
FXUS64 KLZK 141036 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
536 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Another warm and  mild day will be seen this Sun as SRLY winds
increase across the region. Moisture levels will also start
increasing...but precip chances will remain low through much of the
short term. Highs today will be in the 70s and 80s once again. SRLY
winds of 10 to 20 mph will be seen...with gusts over 25 mph at
times. These winds will relax this evening and overnight as the
pressure gradient weakens.

Mainly dry conditions will persist into Mon...with highs in the 70s
and 80s once again. By late Mon afternoon but mainly Mon
night...chances for convection return to the forecast for WRN/NWRN
portions of the area. These increased POPs will be result of an
approaching upper shortwave to the west...which will lift NE from
OK/KS towards MO late in the short term. Ongoing convection to the
west looks to move into WRN/NWRN sections by late Mon night. The
threat for seeing any strong to SVR storms looks limited through Mon
night...but cannot rule out a lingering strong storm as they
approach from the west. Better chances for convection will be seen
areawide early in the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The regional weather pattern will be on the unsettled side going
into Tuesday. The period will begin with an upper trough centered
over the Cntrl Plains with a co-located surface low beneath the
apparent trough near SW NE and NW KS. A cold front will extend S/SW
through KS/Wrn OK/TX and a warm front will extend E through IA/IL/IN.

Moving ahead through Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop along and ahead of the cold front across the open warm
sector. The surface low will lift to the NE through the daytime
(moving further away from AR). Initially these storms could be
supercellar in nature, but then should grow upscale into a squall
line as this activity approaches Wrn AR. All modes of severe weather
will be possible W of AR, however as this activity moves closer to
the state, straight-line winds should be the primary hazard. There
will be lower chance of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two with
any supercells that manage to develop ahead of the squall line. The
environment appears to be characterized by high shear and low CAPE,
with decent clockwise curvature with height. Overall, the best
ingredients appear to be overlapped NW of AR across portions of the
Cntrl and Srn Plains.

A cold front will sweep across the state on Wednesday and
precipitation will diminish from W to E. Slightly cooler air will
filter into the region as the front pushes S and E of AR. The front
will become stationary to our S before lifting to the N as a warm
front on Thursday into Friday. To the W, a surface low will spur in
lee of the Srn Rockies and eject into the Srn Plains. This will
bring rain chances back to the region as early as Friday and linger
into Saturday. A much stronger cold front is progged to push across
the Mid-S on Saturday, this should end precipitation from N to S and
much cooler air will filter into the region.

Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will well above
climatological averages with readings topping out in the 80s with
lows starting out in the 50s and 60s. On Tuesday, readings will be
slightly cooler thanks to increased cloud cover and scattered
precipitation, highs should be in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Late
in the period, highs are anticipated to be in the 60s to near 70
with lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Some breezy SRLY winds will be seen today...with some gusts over
20 kts possible through early this afternoon. These winds will
lessen by this evening and overnight tonight. VFR conditions
should continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  62  81  65 /   0   0   0  20
Camden AR         83  61  80  65 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       84  60  83  64 /   0   0  10  40
Hot Springs AR    79  61  79  65 /   0   0   0  20
Little Rock   AR  82  62  81  66 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     83  61  79  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      79  61  79  64 /   0   0   0  30
Mountain Home AR  85  61  83  65 /   0   0  10  30
Newport AR        83  61  82  66 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     83  61  80  66 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   82  62  82  66 /   0   0   0  20
Searcy AR         81  60  80  65 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      82  62  80  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...62