Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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996 FXUS64 KLZK 282355 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 655 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Data from KLZK radar indicate scattered convection across much of the forecast area. This activity is supported by persistent southerly low level flow, acting on outflow boundaries and a remaining cold dome created by previous morning convection. 19z instability analysis indicates that the previous convection has affected available instability due to overturning across all but southeast sections of the forecast area. Minor recovery is expected through late afternoon. Latest CAM output has been consistent with earlier runs regarding developing a linear type MCS late this afternoon across central Oklahoma, where instability is much higher. This system then will move east across the forecast area overnight. This system should provide impactful rainfall rates. The greatest chance for organized severe convection will be across extreme southwest sections of the forecast area. Some residual activity will end from west to east during the day Monday. Dry conditions are expected for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast at times from Wed-Fri across the state. At the sfc, warm/humid conditions will persist across much of the region with above normal temperatures likely each day. Aloft, H500 flow will largely be out of the SW ahead of a trough moving from the western US toward the Great Lakes. Mid-level ridging is expected to build across the SE US which will further influence the amplified flow across the region. Ahead of the trough, several weak disturbances traversing the SW flow will help contribute to showers and thunderstorms developing across the area. By late week a developing sfc cyclone is expected to drag a cold front across the state which will help focus precip development across AR while the H500 trough swings northeast of the area. Somewhat cooler temperatures along with a brief break in rain chances are possible in the wake of these systems as sfc ridging builds in. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Precipitation continues to increase in intensity and coverage to the west of the terminals and will move eastward with time, likely weakening somewhat as it does. VFR conditions initially will decrease to MVFR and possibly IFR as the precipitation shield builds over the area as a cold front swings through. Conditions will slowly improve behind the boundary, eventually returning to VFR by its conclusion. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 79 64 76 58 / 50 100 70 10 Camden AR 82 63 78 59 / 40 100 60 10 Harrison AR 74 59 77 54 / 80 90 10 0 Hot Springs AR 79 62 79 58 / 50 100 30 0 Little Rock AR 81 65 78 62 / 40 100 60 10 Monticello AR 84 66 76 63 / 30 90 80 10 Mount Ida AR 79 60 81 57 / 60 100 30 0 Mountain Home AR 76 59 78 55 / 70 100 20 0 Newport AR 81 65 76 60 / 40 100 70 10 Pine Bluff AR 82 65 75 61 / 30 90 80 10 Russellville AR 78 62 80 58 / 80 100 30 0 Searcy AR 79 64 77 58 / 30 100 80 10 Stuttgart AR 81 66 75 62 / 30 90 80 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ004-005-014-024-031- 032-039-042>044-052>055-062-063-066>068-103-112-113-121>123-130- 137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340- 341. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...56