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000
FXUS64 KLZK 190519 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1219 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

All guidance continues to point towards an unsettled period with
several rounds of precipitation to deal with. Latest surface
analysis shows deep moisture in place with dew point temperatures
well into the 60s to lower 70s. Precipitation has been ongoing over
the far southeast for most of the day with mainly light showers
elsewhere.

Cold front is located across central OK into central MO at this time
with a much cooler air mass behind it. Thunderstorms are firing up
along the boundary at this time and are expected to move into the
NW corner of the state later this afternoon and into a very moist
and unstable airmass. Surface based CAPE is more than sufficient
to support severe weather but shear is lacking. Still looking at
some strong to possibly severe storms but overall coverage is
expected to be spotty in nature. Whatever storms that do develop
should decrease in intensity during the late evening and into the
overnight hours.

Boundary will move through the metro area around midnight which is a
little slower than previous models were showing with gusty northwest
winds and much cooler air advecting in as it does. In fact, forecast
high temperatures Friday and Saturday are only expected in the 60s.

Front is expected to stall to the south of the state through the
remainder of the forecast period. A lingering chance of showers will
remain in the forecast for Friday as the front settles in.

Widespread precipitation develops west to east across the state as
a wave develops on the aforementioned boundary with the highest POPS
across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY:

A stationary boundary will remain stalled near the I-20 corridor
across Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi just south of the CWA and
state of Arkansas; however, this boundary will remain close enough
to area to provide increased POP chances overall with isolated
thunderstorms on Saturday night through Sunday mid-day before the
once stalled boundary is ushered southward along the Gulf Coast of
the CONUS as a cold front. It is on Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening in which POP chances will become non-existent and sfc high
pressure will begin to move into the region in the wake of the
stationary front. The combination of rain cooled air and the
slightly cooler airmass behind the boundary will lead to
temperatures that in respect to low and high temperatures will be
below normal.

MONDAY:

An area of sfc high pressure pushes into the state and the CWA will
be between two major weather systems between the aforementioned
boundary along the Gulf Coast and an approaching cold front across
the Central Plains region of the CONUS. Expect mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies over Monday with dry conditions. Temperatures
will be below normal with respect to low temperatures on Monday
morning and near normal as high temperatures begin to rebound during
the day.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/NEXT THURSDAY:

The CWA enters another unsettled period of weather as another cold
front approaches the state and will become a stalled stationary
boundary across the state on Wednesday into Thursday. POPs will
begin to increase during the day on Tuesday and remain elevated
through next Thursday. Temperatures during this timeframe with
respect to low and high temperatures will begin to uptick to
slightly above normal. Expect periods of showers and thunderstorms
over this three day period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

CIGS overnight wl lkly fall to to MVFR to IFR levels. Isolated to
scattered TSRA wl remain possible along an advancing cdfrnt,
mainly across central to eastern Arkansas. Fri mrng, precip
activity should be departing to the east, w/ condns improving from
N/W to S/E. Winds wl shift from S/Wrly to N/Wrly overnight and
into Fri w/ the advancing cdfrnt, bcmg gusty at times, w/
sustained readings of 15-20 mph and gusts in excess of 25 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  50  63  46 /  10  40  40  30
Camden AR         68  53  60  46 /  20  50  80  80
Harrison AR       66  47  60  42 /  10  40  30  20
Hot Springs AR    67  49  58  46 /  20  60  80  70
Little Rock   AR  68  53  62  49 /  10  50  70  60
Monticello AR     70  56  63  49 /  20  40  80  80
Mount Ida AR      67  49  58  45 /  20  70  80  70
Mountain Home AR  68  48  63  44 /  10  30  30  20
Newport AR        69  51  62  48 /  10  40  40  30
Pine Bluff AR     67  53  60  48 /  10  50  80  70
Russellville AR   70  51  62  47 /  10  50  50  50
Searcy AR         68  50  62  46 /  10  40  60  40
Stuttgart AR      67  53  60  49 /  10  40  70  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...67