235
FXUS64 KMAF 070756
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
256 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Recent runs have been indicating higher winds across the Guadalupe
Mountains in West Texas and the SE NM plains. Went with NBM 90 for
18Z Tuesday through 02Z Wednesday to reflect higher sustained
winds and gusts that were better in line with GFS and NAM MOS for
GDP. For all of Wednesday, went with just the NBM for wind speeds
and wind gusts since 700 mb vorticity and geopotential winds, as
well as NAM and GFS cross-sections did not show a mountain wave
signature nor presence of mid to upper level jet which would be
suggestive of high (58+ mph) winds being able to mix down to the
surface during daytime mixing. Today with departure of upper level
jet to the east, there is not as much potential for high winds to
mix down the surface as yesterday, although we still see subtle
vorticity signatures aloft passing through that could lead to
gusts near 40 mph during the afternoon.

Clear skies are expected today through tomorrow under quasi-zonal
flow and subtle ridging, which will allow high and low
temperatures to be above average. Westerly downsloping winds
allowing for compressional warming will further contribute to the
above average temperatures today and tomorrow. Highs today will be
in the 90s and above for the area aside from higher elevations of
West Texas, most of the Permian Basin, and west and east of the
Pecos River in the SE NM plains, where highs will be in the 80s.
Lows tonight will only fall into the 60s, 50s over the higher
elevations of West Texas and northern parts of the Permian Basin
and SE NM plains. Wednesday, highs will be similar to Tuesday,
although a few degrees warmer for most locations, especially the
SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin that will see more
extensive 90s for highs, as well as near the Rio Grande where
triple digit readings are indicated. This warm and dry pattern and
accompanying increased fire risk will not be long-lived. More on
this in the Long Term and Fire Weather discussions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A broad low churning over the northern Great Plains through
midweek will finally begin to progress eastward heading into
Thursday, with a breakdown in the expansive troughing expected
that had been maintained across the western two-thirds of the
CONUS. As this low translates into the Great Lakes, a secondary
low on the west side of the aforementioned trough will result in a
transition to weak southwesterly flow aloft over Southeast New
Mexico and West Texas. Concurrently, a cold front extending from
the low moving into the Great Lakes will move into the region on
Thursday, currently timed into the northern Permian Basin and
Southeast New Mexico just prior to daybreak , then making gradual
progression southward through the day. This front will mark an end
to our unseasonably hot temperatures, with highs Thursday
expected to top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s north and in
the mountains, with 90s along the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys and
across the Stockton Plateau where locations will see a bit more
heating prior to the front`s arrival. Unfortunately, after a few
days of downsloping westerly flow beneath zonal flow aloft,
moisture will be scant, thus no precipitation is expected to
accompany the front.

Thursday night through widespread the weekend, northeasterly to
easterly flow will continue in earnest in the wake of the front,
the aforementioned secondary low progged to remain fairly
stationary over the southern Great Basin through Saturday night.
Ahead of this feature, quasi-zonal to southwesterly flow aloft
will result in increased mid-level moisture, which, given the
isentropic upglide regime, will see the return of rain chances
Friday into the weekend, especially across eastern areas where
moisture will be a bit better. Saturday night and Sunday, the low
to the west will finally begin its eastward trek, dampening
slightly as it moves across the Four Corners Region. That said,
ascent ahead of the approaching trough as well as falling heights
will produce fairly widespread precipitation chances late in the
weekend, however rain chances remain low (around 10-40%). The
combination of the northeasterly and easterly surface flow as well
as cloud cover and increased moisture will keep temperatures in
check Friday through the weekend, with highs topping out in the
70s and 80s each day, albeit slightly warmer on Sunday.

Next Monday, ensembles indicate the low will move into the Central
Plains, its core passing to the north of the region. This low`s
accompanying Pacific Front as well as the resurgence of the
dryline will yield thunderstorm chances from the eastern Permian
Basin south across the Trans Pecos Monday afternoon, with the
unsettled pattern lingering into Tuesday, when storms remain
possible to the east. At this time, severe potential and rainfall
amounts remain unclear, however above normal temperatures look to
quickly return early next week, with highs in the upper 80s to
middle 90s expected for most by Tuesday.

JP

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR VIS and CIGs prevail for all terminals throughout the TAF
period. Southwest winds develop at all terminals by 17Z-19Z
Tuesday, with highest winds across western terminals, including
HOB, CNM, and INK. Wind gusts above 30kts are indicated for CNM
and HOB from 21Z Tuesday to 02Z Wednesday. Winds decrease at all
terminals after 01Z- 02Z Wednesday, but southwest winds are likely
to remain above 10kts at CNM and HOB into the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The hot, dry, and breezy conditions continue today, with critical
RHs areawide this afternoon, the lowest of which around 5-8% are
expected for locations along and west of the Pecos. Recent
rainfall has mitigated fire weather concerns for the Permian Basin
south across the Lower Trans Pecos, however locations to the west
have largely missed out. Thus, fuels there remain dry with
minimal green-up, and ERCs continue climbing toward the 90th
percentile. Most locations remain just below that threshold,
though the Van Horn area in Culberson County remains near the
90th, and given the strongest 20ft winds today around 20-25 mph
are expected across the west, and upward of 30 mph with higher
gusts in the mountains, critical fire weather conditions will
materialize across the same areas as yesterday. RFTIs ranging from
6-8 are expected from Southeast New Mexico south to the Davis
Mountains, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon.
Improvement is expected after sunset tonight as winds decrease,
though nocturnal recovery will be poor, with the only good
recovery tonight found across the far eastern Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos given persistent downsloping westerly flow.

Heading into Wednesday, fire weather concerns continue, becoming
more widespread across western areas as winds ramp up.
Exacerbating the issue is the fact that ERCs will also continue
climbing, eclipsing the 75th percentile once again all the way to
the Presidio Valley. Fuels also continue to dry, with the benefits
of recent rains near/west of the Pecos becoming less pronounced
after a few days of above normal temperatures and breezy
conditions, with even 100-hr fuel moisture across the
aforementioned area dropping under the 25th percentile. Given
these trends, have hoisted a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday,
extending from Southeast New Mexico south to the Marfa Plateau
and Presidio Valley where RFTIs around 5-8 are expected. Once
again, eastward extent of more significant fire weather concerns
remains tempered due to the more widespread wetting rains that
were received.

Fortunately, a cold front arrives on Thursday, accompanied by
cooler temperatures and a gradual increase in moisture through
the upcoming weekend. Ahead of the front Thursday, localized RFTI
around 5-7 are possible, mainly south of I-10, but given the
localized nature, a Rangeland Fire Danger statement looks more
likely at this time than another Red Flag Warning. Thereafter,
below normal temperatures and lighter winds mitigate fire weather
concerns, with the return of shower and thunderstorm chances
Friday through the weekend.

JP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               90  61  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 90  60  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   96  66  99  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            94  65  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           80  59  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    88  57  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    86  52  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     89  62  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   89  64  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     93  61  93  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8
     PM MDT/ this evening for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-
     Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...94