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000
FXUS64 KMAF 180515
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1215 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Westerly flow will continue the next 24-36 hours across West Texas
and eastern New Mexico keeping skies mostly clear and preventing any
rain chances. However, above normal daytime highs will keep
temperatures from dropping too much tonight with lows in the 50s to
60s being about 10 degrees above normal. These warmer overnight
temps set the stage for a hot, and perhaps record breaking day
tomorrow as downsloping and prefrontal compressional warming send
highs well into the 90s...even approaching 100 degrees in some of
the lower elevations along the Pecos River.

A deep upper level low sitting stationary over south-central Canada
will send a shot of cold air south along the front range of the
Rockies and into the CWA beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing
overnight. A deep fetch of northerly flow will allow for much cooler
temperatures to move south with lows Thursday night dropping back to
near normal and even colder air headed in during the long term
forecast.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

While the Permian Basin is in a post-frontal airmass on Friday,
upper level flow remains largely zonal until a trough approaches
late Friday evening into Saturday. With the increased RH behind the
front on Friday paired with increased ascent and mid-level moisture
with the approaching shortwave, precipitation chances increase
Friday afternoon from south to north. The highest chances are
expected during the day on Saturday as the trough draws closer,
with rain chances subsiding Saturday night as it departs. Steep
mid-level lapse rates with the passing trough could support some
elevated instability and some embedded thunderstorms in the post
frontal areas. While wind shear isn`t very strong and chances of
severe weather is low (<10%), the stronger storms could feature
some small hail and gusty winds. As for storm coverage and
rainfall amounts, this is still a bit tricky as we remain mainly
in global model/ensemble range. The thinking is that the rainfall
will be largely convectively driven instead of a large swath of
rain, leading to some places seeing a nice chunk of rain, while
others may get little to no rain at all. With this, the NBM`s PoPs
may be a bit on the high side at this time, owing to the
global/ensemble model bias this far out. We`ll have some more
information as we get within range of the higher resolution models
in the next day or so. After we dry out on Sunday, upper level
ridging gradually builds early next week, leading to mostly dry
conditions aside from a few afternoon storms possible the Big Bend
on Sunday/Monday afternoons, as a weak shortwave sneaks through
under the ridge.

After the hot Spring day seen on Thursday, temperatures will be
significantly cooler across the Permian Basin behind Thursday
night`s front. The front should end up stalled somewhere near the
Pecos River valley Friday afternoon and areas in the Basin will be
limited to high temperatures in the low 60s aided by cloud cover/
rain chances while 70s/80s and even some 90s persist south of the
front. The front surges southward more Friday night, giving way
to a cool morning Saturday with lingering clouds/rainfall chances
holding temperatures in the 50s/60s for most again. Deterministic
NBM has not yet caught on to how cold Friday/Saturday will be and
have maintained using the 25th percentile NBM for MaxTs. Clouds
stick around through Sunday but clear out for Monday when
temperatures return to near normal as the ridge builds.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR should prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be
westerly/northwesterly today and remain below 12kts. Winds switch
more easterly beginning around sunset and will continue into the
morning. Periods of gusty easterly winds possible in the 01z-06z
timeframe. Low CIGs may be possible beyond this TAF period that
will be mentioned in coming TAF packages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               97  54  62  55 /   0   0  20  60
Carlsbad                 94  53  77  56 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                   98  66  84  63 /  10  10  40  50
Fort Stockton            97  61  81  61 /   0   0  50  50
Guadalupe Pass           85  54  74  56 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                    91  50  65  52 /   0   0  10  40
Marfa                    90  49  85  53 /   0   0  30  40
Midland Intl Airport     96  55  64  56 /   0   0  20  60
Odessa                   96  56  66  58 /   0   0  20  60
Wink                     98  58  75  58 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...88