Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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865 FXUS62 KMFL 010501 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 101 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Downtrend in convection this evening with the Gulf sea breeze activity now over the waters and most of the peninsula remaining free of additional convective flareups. Made just small adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints for those rain-cooled areas in Southwest Florida. Otherwise, do not anticipate any additional major updates through the evening. Have a wonderful Friday night! && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Today will be a transition day in South Florida as breezy east-northeast winds increase with strong high pressure building across the Eastern seaboard behind a departing mid-level trough. This will result in a generally cooler and drier day across the area, with the chances for showers and thunderstorms over the interior and southwest regions into this evening. While storm activity will be suppressed, there could still be a few strong to severe storms with decent mid-level lapse rates and cooler temperatures aloft. Any storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, hail, and localized flooding. On Saturday, a shallow backdoor cold front will push across the area from over the Atlantic, reinforcing breezy easterly flow over South Florida. There could be a few showers along the east coast metro forming along convergence boundaries, but in general most convective activity will again be over the interior and southwest areas. The most notable impacts from the breezy easterly flow will be the cooler temperatures, especially across eastern areas. Highs today will range from around 90 along the east coast, to mid to upper 90s along the gulf coast. Saturday`s highs will be a few degrees cooler, with mid to upper 80s along the east coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior and gulf coast. Heat index values will not be much different than the high temperature with dewpoints at or below 70. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .Rest of This Weekend into Early Next Week... The long range models are showing that the back door cold front will have dissipated over the Florida Straits late this weekend, as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Western Atlantic waters. This will keep a northeast to east wind flow over South Florida allowing for the east coast sea breeze to push inland each day with the west coast sea breeze remaining over the west coast metro areas. This will allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along the east coast sea breeze in the morning hours before shifting and increasing in coverage over interior and west coast metro areas in the afternoon hours. Highs each day will be mainly in the lower to mid 90s over most areas, except mid to upper 80s over the east coast metro areas. The only exception to this is over the far western east coast metro areas where it could get up to around 90 degrees. Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s over most areas each day except lower to mid 90s east coast metro areas and around 100 over metro Collier County. Lows will be mainly in the lower to mid 70s over most areas each night, except for the east coast metro areas where they will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. .Middle To End Of Next Week... The ridge will break down late next week over the Western Atlantic waters allowing for a trough of low pressure to build into the Eastern United States from the west. This will allow for the steering flow to become more south to southwest direction over South Florida. At the same time, some deeper moisture could start to work into South Florida from the Caribbean Sea. This will allow for a possible increase in POPs over South Florida late next week with the highest coverage over the east coast metro areas where the sea breezes collide. Highs will also be on an increase middle to end of next week with highs getting up into the mid to upper 90s over most areas, except around 90 over the west coast metro areas. Heat indices will also be increasing and should be in the lower to mid 100s over most areas, except around 100 over the west coast metro areas. Lows will also remain in the 70s over most areas, except around 80 east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 E/NE winds 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts late this morning through the early evening. VCTS entered at all locations after 18Z. Mainly clear skies early this morning with SCT MVFR ceilings possible throughout the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 East-northeast winds of 15 to 25 kts will develop this evening and overnight, creating hazardous boating conditions over the Atlantic waters, which will linger through most of the weekend. Seas will build up to 6-7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and 2-3 feet over the Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Atlantic waters from this evening through Sunday morning. Additionally, there is potential for daily showers and thunderstorms, which could result in locally elevated winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Developing east to northeast onshore flow has lead to a High Risk of Rip Currents for the east coast beaches of South Florida for rest of this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure building north of the area will keep east to northeast winds in place over the weekend, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph during each afternoon. Minimum RH values will drop to around 35% across interior and southwest areas, while staying above 50% along the coast. Despite the drier airmass, there will still be chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, primarily focused over the interior and southwest areas, initiating along sea breeze boundaries. Afternoon dispersion values will range from very good to locally excellent. The combination of high dispersion and dry fuels over the interior and southwest areas will lead to sensitive fire conditions that will have to be monitored. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 87 78 88 / 40 50 40 40 West Kendall 75 88 75 88 / 40 50 30 40 Opa-Locka 76 88 78 88 / 40 40 30 40 Homestead 77 88 76 87 / 40 50 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 77 86 79 86 / 40 40 30 40 N Ft Lauderdale 76 86 77 87 / 40 40 30 40 Pembroke Pines 77 89 78 88 / 40 40 30 40 West Palm Beach 75 86 76 88 / 40 40 30 40 Boca Raton 76 86 77 86 / 40 40 30 40 Naples 74 93 75 93 / 30 50 40 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....BNB AVIATION...CMF