534
FXUS62 KMHX 020843
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
443 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet
another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect area
wide until 9 AM for fog limiting visibility to 1 mile or less.
After the fog mixes out later this morning, ridging will move
overhead today. This will send high temps to nearly 90 across
the coastal plain while the beaches stay in the upper 70s. Winds
will be light and variable today until the afternoon seabreeze
pushes through. No shower or storm development is expected along
the seabreeze given the limited moisture in the column.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Tonight will be similar to last night. Lows
will bottom out around 60 and another round of fog is in the cards.
Cloud cover will hang around and winds will be light to calm out of
the SSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Quiet until this weekend when conditions
become more unsettled through early next week. Best rain
chances on Sunday

Friday...A passing shortwave embedded within the ridge will cause a
slight bump in winds and an increase in cloud cover. Additionally, a
dry cold front to our north will dip south into our northern
counties. Temps will reach their warmest marks of the week before
the cold front moves through with the coastal plain topping out in
the upper 80s and the beaches in the mid 70s.

Weekend...The mid-level ridge remains over the eastern US
Saturday but weakens as a complex series of shortwave troughs
and surface lows move toward the area, resulting in unsettled
conditions that will persist into the beginning of next week.
Chances for showers and storms start to increase Saturday
morning and peak Sunday (30-50%). Shower and storm chances hang
around through the period due to the lingering nature the front,
but they will be decreasing as we progress into next week
(25-50% Monday, 15-30% Tuesday). Saturday`s high temps will be
a few degrees cooler than Friday due to the originally dry cold
front that will dip south (low 80s coastal plain, low 70s
beaches). Temps remain around the same Sunday.

Early next Week...Upper ridging builds back over the area
Tuesday behind a weak shortwave passing Monday. Shortwave and
remnants of the weekend`s front/SFC trough will lead to some
precip Mon. Temps rebound next week with highs expected to
reach back into 80s Mon and Tues, 90s Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 1:45 AM Thursday...Light to calm winds and clear skies
have set the table for fog development tonight and some sites
are already bouncing back and forth from VFR to LIFR. This
denser fog is expected to become more widespread over the next
few hours and dissipate not long after sunrise. Clouds will
increase in coverage and lower in height before sunrise, but
CIGs are expected to stay within the FEW to SCT range. The OBX
will hang on to greater cloud cover through the day tomorrow
while the coastal plain will clear out after sunrise. Light
variable winds will become southwesterly around 5 kts tomorrow
evening.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Friday.
Conditions become more unsettled this weekend through early next
week due to a series of disturbances moving across the area.
There will be multiple chances for showers and storms with
Sunday having the greatest threat (30-60%). Periods of lower
CIGs and VIS as well as gusty winds if near any storms can be
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions through the period. Winds
will be light (5 kt or less) and variable for much of the day but
will slightly increase in speed (5-10 kt) as they transition to
southerly and then eventually southwesterly by tomorrow morning.
Seas will be about 2 ft.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through
the period but multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
could create hazardous boating conditions. Sunday presents the
best opportunity for showers and storms (30-40%). Winds veer to
the southwest by early Friday. A dry cold front will sag south
into northern counties on Friday. North of Cape Hatteras, 5-10
kt winds will be out of the E by the afternoon. South of Cape
Hatteras, winds will be 5-10 kt out of the ESE. Winds and seas
pick up Saturday- Sunday as a front approaches. Winds will be
ESE around 10-15 kt Saturday and then southerly by Sunday. Seas
remain around 2 ft until Saturday when they will increase to 2-4
ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131-
     135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CEB/OJC
MARINE...CEB/OJC