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000
FXUS62 KMHX 121109
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
709 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area from the south this weekend
behind a strong low pressure system and associated cold front.
High pressure dominates into early next week with a dry frontal
passage occurring Monday night. Ridging reestablishes itself by
Tuesday with the next potential frontal system at the end of
the week next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 7 AM Friday... Had to make some minor tweaks to temps and
dewpoints to catch current trends as we did not cool off as much
as previously expected this morning but we still remained in
the 60s across ENC. In addition to this, added in a very
progressive area of SChc PoP`s across our central and northern
tier through about 9AM given current radar trends as an
isolated area of showers quickly pushes E`wards across ENC this
morning. Otherwise everything else is tracking well and
expecting a blustery but warm day today.

Prev Disc...As we get further into Friday, negatively tilted
upper level trough centered over the Ohio River Valley will
gradually push E`wards today becoming centered over the Eastern
Seaboard by this evening while at the same time a mid level
shortwave will round the base of this trough this afternoon
nearing the coast by this evening and bringing our next
potential round of shower activity. At the surface cold front
and strong low pressure system will gradually pull away from the
area today while high pressure begins to ridge in from the
south and west. As the aforementioned s/w makes its way across
the region a surface trough will slowly track E`wards across the
Triad and enter into the Coastal Plain late this afternoon.
This will bring one more threat for some shower activity to ENC
later today, though there remains a question about how much
moisture can make it over the mountains especially as we
continue to dry out today. However, give the impressive forcing
from the incoming trough elected to keep at least a SChc of
showers in the forecast this evening. While not explicitly
stated an isolated rumble of thunder or two is not out of the
question as well though given the very low probability of
thunder today elected not to put that in the forecast for now.

Finally a combination of deep mixing and a tight pressure
gradient across ENC will keep winds elevated through today with
widespread SW-W`rly winds persisting at 10-20 mph with gusts around
250-35 mph through Fri afternoon before winds gradually ease some
Friday evening. With the area remaining well mixed temps will get
into the upper 60s to mid 70s across the region today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Fri... Surface trough quickly pushes off the coast
of ENC by early tonight keeping at least a slight chance of
some shower activity across the region through about the 8-10 PM
timeframe before any shower activity associated with this
trough pushes off the coast and clearing skies build over ENC.
Winds will be lighter as compared to the afternoon but will
still remain elevated tonight gusting to around 10-15 mph while
lows get down into upper 40s to low 50s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...High pressure builds in from the south
and west over the weekend and settles in off the SE Coast early
next week bringing fair weather to ENC from Sat to late next
week, where our next chance of rain exists.

Sat through midweek next week... Upper trough eventually pushes away
from the Mid-Atlantic on Sat and Sun with more zonal flow
overspreading the Carolinas this weekend before upper ridging builds
across the Eastern CONUS. A weak s/w trough may track across
the Carolinas Sun night into Mon morning before ridging
establishes itself. At the surface, high pressure builds in from
the south and west on Sat and Sun before setting up in the
Sargasso Sea off the SE Coast early next week. The pressure
gradient will remain tight between the building high pressure
and departing fronts and strong low well off to the north and
east on Sat allowing W`rly downslope winds to remain rather
gusty with wind gusts expected to be in the 20-25 mph range Sat
afternoon. Given the downslope flow dewpoints will likely lower
some and with temps in the 70s across inland areas, RH`s will
drop into the 25-30% range across the Coastal Plain. The
combination of stronger winds and low RH`s could result in some
elevated fire danger and if confidence in this threat increases
further a fire weather section of the AFD may become necessary.

As a second s/w trough moves across ENC Sun night into Mon, dry
cold front approaches and outside of some elevated SW`rly winds
and additional cloud cover Sun night little in the way of
impacts will be felt from this front. Afterwards high pressure
ridging remains in place promoting dry conditions and a gradual
warming trend through Thursday. Frontal system approaches from
the west as a low lifts to our north Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Fri night/...
As of 705 AM Fri... VFR conditions currently encompass ENC this
morning. This is forecast to persist through the entire
forecast period across the area. There is an isolated area of
showers currently located from about EWN north into Martin
County which is quickly tracking E`wards. This shower activity
should push offshore within the next few hours and bring little
in the way of impacts to any of the TAF sites or rest of ENC. A
strong shortwave moving across ENC this evening could bring
some additional light shower activity to the TAF sites but
given the latest forecast, confidence and coverage isn`t high
enough to add this into the TAF`s just yet. Either way still
expecting VFR conditions if showers were too occur. Otherwise
the main story will continue to be the gusty WSW to W winds
today as winds generally persist around 10-20 kts with wind
gusts in excess of 25 to 30 kts across all TAF sites. With this
in mind some crosswind issues could arise at EWN runway 14/32
this morning before winds become more westerly in the coming
hours. These elevated winds will continue into the early evening
before subsiding some with 5-10 kt W`rly winds gusting to 10-15
kt at times.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Friday...Expect primarily VFR conditions through the
TAF period with a high pressure gradually building in from the
south and west through the weekend and into early next week. The
main concern will be the gusty winds on Sat with SW to W`rly
winds potentially gusting 20+ kts. Much lighter winds are then
forecast from Sun onwards.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday night/...
As of 425 AM Friday... WInds have quickly come down across all
of our waters this morning allowing for the gales to end and be
replaced by SCA`s as of this update. With strong low and cold
front pulling away from the region today high pressure ridging
will gradually build in from the south and west this evening.
Though this will keep the pressure gradient tight allowing gusty
winds to continue across our waters keeping SCA`s in place just
about everywhere through the period. Ongoing 15-25 kt SW`rly
winds with gusts up to 30kts are prevalent across our waters
this morning and will continue into Friday night, though winds
will veer to a westerly direction later today. There may be a
brief period across our northern inland sounds where gusts fall
below 25 kts, but as a surface trough quickly sweeps E`wards
across the region wind gusts will increase once again this
evening to 25+ kts. WInds may ease enough across our far inland
rivers to allow for the SCA`s to drop as well this afternoon.
Otherwise expect 15-20 KT W`rly winds with gusts to 25-30 kts
across our waters. 7-12 ft seas this morning will gradually
subside as well over the next several hours falling to 4-7 ft by
Fri night.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Friday...As we get into Sat, winds remain westerly
behind the second front and increase once again with sustained
winds around 20-25 kts and gusts up near 30 kts at times. Some
minor funneling could occur across the Pamlico River and
Albemarle Sound given wind direction but either way looks like
small craft conditions would be possible once again. Winds
finally ease Sat evening down to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20
kts ending the SCA`s across our inland waters. 4-6 ft seas north
of Hatteras and 4-8 ft seas south of Hatteras Saturday morning
will gradually lower as the winds slowly ease with widespread
3-6 ft seas found across all waters by Sat evening. Better
boating conditions remain in place through Sun before an
incoming surface trough tightens the gradient Sun night bringing
the potential for more low-end SCA conditions before quieter
weather finally returns to the marine zones early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 525 AM Friday... Given the latest trends in the
observations have allowed the coastal flood advisory to expire
across Mainland Hyde and Dare Counties, as well as Onslow, and
Carteret Counties as water levels have subsided significantly
since last night. Have also ended the high surf advisory across
Onslow County as surf heights have lowered significantly here.

A mix of Coastal Flood and High Surf Advisories
remain in effect for potential inundation of 1-2 ft above
ground level (agl), rough surf and beach erosion today between
Carteret and Coastal Dare County. Strong southwesterly winds
will remain across the area today keeping seas elevated leading
to periods of ocean overwash and beach erosion for southern
facing oceanside locales. NC12 is currently closed on the north
end of Ocracoke with ferry service suspended between Hatteras
and Ocracoke given the ongoing coastal flooding and ocean
overwash. The latest information from NCDOT is that this section
of Hwy 12 could reopen later today. The potential for soundside
flooding exists for areas along the northern half of Pamlico
Sound this morning directly behind the departing front. Minor
flooding could linger along the soundside Outer Banks as well as
oceanside Ocracoke into this evening.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ195-
     196.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ204.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ131-135-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ136-
     137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...DAG/RCF/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX