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000
FXUS63 KMKX 122023
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
323 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gales continue as isolated showers pop up for the rest of the
  day today.

- Above normal temps expected for the weekend into early next
  week.

- Keeping an eye on thunderstorm potential next Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 325 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Tonight through Saturday night:

Currently, some isolated showers have popped up in southeastern
Wisconsin, with some rumbles of thunder along the line. The
lowest layers of the atmosphere continue to remain drier than
aloft, which may have some areas seeing more virga as opposed to
rain. Northwesterly winds will continue throughout the
afternoon and into the evening, before calming going into the
evening. Any remaining precipitation will also taper off around
the late afternoon into the evening.

Tomorrow, high pressure over the Central United States will
build into southeastern Wisconsin. With this ridge, southerly
winds and sunshine will help bring warmer temperatures to the
area going into the afternoon hours. Locations closer to the
lakeshore will remain cooler than interior Wisconsin, which will
see temperatures around the mid-to-upper 60s. Weather will
remain generally uneventful due to the high pressure overhead.

Gertonson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 325 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Sunday through Friday:

To begin this period, Sunday will continue to be on the warm and
dry side with a 500mb ridge sitting over much of the Midwest.
Temperatures will reach into the low to mid 70s inland while
lakeside communities will be cooler with temperatures sticking
around in the mid-60s. With dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s
and winds nearing 10-15mph, RH values will fall into the 30%
range Sunday afternoon. While we are not anticipating anything
too concerning with regards to fire concerns at this point.
However, if trends hedge on the drier side, more consideration
will be needed in future forecasting cycles. Monday will present
similar conditions to Monday but temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler but the dewpoint will be heading into the afternoon
in advance of a trough exiting the Southern Plains.

As we head into the overnight hours on Monday, our main weather
threat of the week will arrive. At the synoptic level a trough
will exit the Southern Plains on a northeasterly track towards the
Great Lakes. As it does, it`ll support the cyclogenesis of a
sub-990mb low east of the Rocky Mountains. Through this we will
see a warm front associated with it begin to trek through the
Midwest and eventually into the Great Lakes region sometime on
Monday Night and into Tuesday Morning. Precipitation chances will
increase as the front moves through the area. The Storm Prediction
Center has placed much of our CWA under a 15% chance of severe
weather. With that in mind, there will be many things that will
have to be sorted out before we could potentially see any severe
weather. The first being, the location of the warm front. Does it
make it into Wisconsin or does it stall out south of our CWA due
to an enhanced lake breeze setting up? Secondly, where does the
jet streak trend to? Does it allow for the more robust storms to
occur in our area or down in IL? Lastly, -this won`t become
apparent until Monday`s severe storms are resolved, but how much
instability will be available on Tuesday. The EML and associated
lapse rates will be worked over somewhat on the day prior. This
will result in Mid-Level Lapse Rates remaining on the lower side
as of now. With all that in mind, the foundation is there for
convective storms with model guidance showing dewpoints in the
58-61F range, trough just to our west, and just enough instability
through the day to potentially give us some stronger/severe
storms.

Regardless if we get any severe weather, we will see widespread precipitation
across the entire CWA. Rain should start early Tuesday and
continue in some shape or form until late on Wednesday when a cold
front moving through ends all precipitation. By the time it`s all
said and done, rainfall totals could be reaching upwards of
0.5-1.25" from Monday through Wednesday. To close out the week,
cooler conditions will prevail with winds out of the NW and
temperatures 10-20F cooler than it was earlier in the week.

KP

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 325 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Popcorn convection and strato-cumulus has developed across
southeastern Wisconsin, with some rumbles of thunder heard
closer to the lake. However, drier lower layers will keep cloud
ceilings VFR as the showers pass over. Afterwards, calmer winds
and clearer skies expected to persist into tomorrow.

Gertonson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 325 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The low pressure of 28.9 inches over Ontario continues to move
out of the Great Lakes region, bringing with it gales of around
30-40 knots across Lake Michigan. The greatest winds remain
isolated to the southern portion`s eastern shore, where gales have
reached as high as 45 knots. Winds still expected to calm going
into the evening, but gales will remain over the upper third of
Lake Michigan before subsequently dropping off.

By tomorrow afternoon, a building ridge of 30.2 over the Central
United States will settle over the area, bringing with it
southerly winds of around 10-15 knots. Over the lower third of the
lake, there is a possibility of some gustier winds over the water
and eastern nearshore, but it will be brief and taper off going
into Saturday evening. A passing shortwave will shift winds back
out of the north/northwest by early afternoon Sunday, with light
variable winds into Monday. Gusty southerly winds expected to
return by late Tuesday over the open water.

Gertonson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
     LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
     LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 PM Friday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 until 1 AM Saturday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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