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000
FXUS62 KMLB 210829
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
429 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 429 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...Breezy with Near Record High Temperatures Today...

Today-Tonight...Cold front moving into north Florida and ridge
axis of high pressure south of central Florida, will produce a
breezy W/SW flow across the area today, with gusts up to 25 to 30
mph possible. This will continue to produce much warmer than
normal conditions, especially along the coast where the east coast
sea breeze will either be pinned along the coast or remain just
offshore. We will be on record watch today, mainly for coastal
sites (Daytona Beach, Melbourne, Vero Beach and Fort Pierce) where
max temps are forecast to tie or break their record max temps as
highs rise into the low 90s. Across inland areas near to northwest
of the I-4 corridor, highs are forecast to be a tad lower but
still warm in the upper 80s. Mostly dry conditions expected today,
but increasing moisture south of Orlando and late afternoon
interactions with the stalled east coast sea breeze may produce a
few showers and possibly a storm or two along the Treasure Coast,
before this activity shifts offshore by sunset. However, rain
chances remain low around 20 percent.

Rain chances increase into tonight up to 20-40 percent, as cold
front approaches and begins to move into central Florida.
Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible, mainly
later into the evening and overnight along and ahead of this
boundary. Cloud cover will also increase with the front overnight,
with low temperatures still near to slightly above normal in the
60s.

Monday...A mid-level trough will sweep across the Florida
peninsula on Monday, with its associated weak cold front forecast
to move southward across the area. PWATs are forecast to increase
up to 1.6" across east central Florida, with isolated to scattered
showers possible out ahead of the front. A look at some of the
CAM guidance (which is now extending out in time to include
Monday) has yielded unimpressive shower coverage ahead of the
front, so went ahead and limited PoPs to 50% across east central
Florida.

Guidance continues to indicate some potential for isolated storm
development ahead of the front, though confidence in this has
decreased. Model guidance has less instability than before, with
SBCAPE values generally in the 500 to 800 J/kg range, and almost
exclusively restricted to the southern portions of the forecast
area. Additionally, 500 mb temperatures have trended slightly
warmer, with values in the -11 to -10C range ahead of the front.
Modest deep layer shear continues to be present in the models, with
0-6 km shear remaining around 50 knots. This means that if any
storms are able to develop, they may be capable of producing
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and even hail. The area
most likely to see storm development based on what the models are
indicating include the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties. As
a result, the Storm Prediction Center has trimmed the Marginal
Risk (1/5) for severe weather to this area. There is a 5% chance
for severe wind gusts up to 60 mph and a 5% chance for severe hail
1 inch in diameter. Overall, confidence in storm development
remains low at this time.

Westerly winds are forecast to veer to out of the north-northwest
behind the front at 10 to 15 mph. The weak cold front will bring
slightly cooler temperatures across east central Florida, with
afternoon highs in the low to upper 70s from Melbourne to
Kissimmee and areas northward. Southward, highs are still forecast
to climb into the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be slightly
cooler, with temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s across east
central Florida.

Tuesday-Saturday...Behind the weak frontal boundary, an area of
high pressure at the surface will settle across the Florida
peninsula through the remainder of the forecast period. This will
keep conditions mostly dry, with PoPs forecast to remain below 15
percent through early next weekend. The GFS continues to try and
show some increasing moisture locally that could lead to isolated
showers along the sea breeze, but have continued to lean on the
drier side of things with this forecast package. North winds will
veer, becoming onshore through the remainder of the forecast
period. Wind speeds will increase to 10 to 15 mph each afternoon.
Skies will remain mostly clear, allowing for sufficient daytime
heating. As a result, temperatures will gradually increase across
east central Florida, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s on
Tuesday increasing to the low to upper 80s from Wednesday onward.
The coast will remain cooler than the interior thanks to the
onshore flow. Overnight lows are also forecast to gradually
increase, with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s Tuesday and
Wednesday night and increasing into the low to mid 60s through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 429 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Patchy fog possible, mainly near to northwest of I-4 through early
this morning (through around 13Z). However, some higher cloud cover
moving into this area may end up limiting any fog development.
Should any fog form, tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will occur.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to largely prevail today, as
conditions remain mostly dry. A few showers, and potentially a
storm or two could form toward the Treasure Coast and shift
offshore this afternoon. However, better potential for showers and
isolated storms will occur tonight as cold front begins to push
southward into central FL. Predominant MVFR cigs will begin to
move in from north to south across the area overnight, with some
IFR cigs possible toward daybreak Monday.

W/SW winds will become breezy around 13-15 knots, with gusts up to
20-25 knots into this afternoon. The east coast sea breeze may be
able to push onshore along the Treasure Coast in the afternoon, with
winds becoming S/SE and also quite breezy. Winds then diminish into
this evening out of the W/SW around 10 mph, becoming W/NW overnight
as front begins to move into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 429 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Today-Tonight...S/SW winds up to 10-15 knots offshore this morning,
will become southerly into this afternoon, increasing up to 15-20
knots over the Treasure Coast waters and offshore waters of Brevard
County from late afternoon through this evening. Will include
exercise caution headlines for the waters south of Sebastian Inlet
for these developing poor boating conditions during the
afternoon. Winds will then become W/NW overnight, around 10-15
knots as cold front begins to move into the waters. An isolated
storm or two pushing offshore the Treasure Coast waters will be
possible later this afternoon, with showers and isolated offshore
moving storms possible into tonight along and ahead of the front.
Any storms will produce lightning strikes and gusty winds.

Monday-Thursday...An approaching weak cold front will lead to
scattered showers and isolated storms across the local Atlantic
waters on Monday. As the front moves southward across the waters,
boating conditions are forecast to deteriorate. Westerly winds will
veer to out of the north behind the front, increasing to 15 to 25
knots Monday night. In response, seas will increase to 4 to 6 feet
across the nearshore waters and 5 to 8 feet across the offshore
waters. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for late
Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Boating conditions are then
forecast to improve late Tuesday as winds subside to around 10
knots out of the east and seas begin to gradually improve, falling
to 2 to 4 feet through the remainder of the week. Dry conditions
are forecast to persist across the local waters Tuesday through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 429 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Today...Near Red Flag conditions expected today, as warmer than
normal temperatures and a drier airmass combine to produce min RH
values in the upper 30s to low 40s over much of the area. It will
also be breezy ahead of an approaching cold front, with W/SW winds
increasing up to 15 to 20 mph, and gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. The
east coast sea breeze will be pinned toward the coast or stay just
offshore, with winds becoming S/SE and also becoming quite breezy
where it is able to push onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast.
So, very sensitive fire weather conditions will exist this
afternoon.

Monday-Thursday...Rain chances are forecast to increase Monday
ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Isolated storms will also
be possible, especially across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee
counties Monday afternoon. Minimum RH values will increase into
the 50 to 65 percent range across east central Florida, with west-
southwest winds veering to out of the north-northwest behind the
front at 10 to 15 mph. Behind the front, a dry air mass is
forecast to settle across the Florida peninsula once again, with
minimum RH values falling back into the 30 to 45 percent range
across the interior west of I-95 through the remainder of the
week. PoPs are forecast to remain below 15 percent. Northerly
winds will become onshore after Tuesday, with wind speeds
increasing each afternoon to 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 429 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Highs will be above to well above normal today, reaching the upper
80s to low 90s over much of the area. Coastal sites will have the
best potential at tying/breaking their record highs today, where
max temps are forecast to reach the low 90s.

Record Highs for Today, April 21st and Last Year Set:

            APR 21st
Daytona     89 2002
Leesburg    93 1968
Sanford     93 2006
Orlando     96 1935
Melbourne   92 1944
Vero Beach  91 1970
Ft. Pierce  90 2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  64  73  57 /  10  40  40  10
MCO  89  68  78  59 /  10  30  40  10
MLB  91  67  80  63 /  10  20  50  10
VRB  91  65  82  63 /  20  20  50  20
LEE  86  65  76  57 /  10  30  30   0
SFB  89  66  76  58 /  10  30  40  10
ORL  89  68  78  59 /  10  30  40  10
FPR  90  65  83  63 /  20  20  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Weitlich
LONG TERM...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Weitlich