Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
874 FXUS62 KMLB 050054 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 854 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... (Tonight) Issued at 854 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Key Messages... -Somewhat unsettled to finish the weekend with isolated to scattered storms on Sunday. -Lingering isolated storm chances early in the week, then drier. -Early season heat wave still looks to arrive mid/late next week with highs well into the 90s. Well, a few spots got a soaking rain this afternoon. Coverage was mainly confined to the interior, with initiation from near Sanford to Bithlo then across Osceola/Okeechobee counties. Some places received over 2" of rain before this activity fizzled out. Later, a seabreeze collision occurred from Sumter to Hillsborough Co`s. The only impact for our area from that activity was some anvil lightning on the Lake/Sumter Co. line. A weakness at H5 remains overhead through early Sunday before heights begin to increase. Combined with seasonable moisture values, this is a bit of a rinse/repeat pattern. Overnight, a few showers (perhaps a stray storm) redevelop over the Atlantic with some of this approaching the coast toward daybreak. Otherwise, most places will be dry. Lows will fall into the upper 60s to low 70s, with those 70s mainly confined to the coast amid a steady onshore breeze off of the warming shelf water. Melbourne is on record watch tonight; we are on track to tie the record warm low temp for today so long as it does not drop below 75F before midnight LST. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 854 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR conditions persist outside of any showers/storms over the period. Timing these showers and storms will be of low confidence. Tried to capture trends with VCSH/VCTS in TAFs. Latest guidance suggests 20% coverage of showers along the coastal terminals between roughly 12-18Z before 30-40% coverage for the Greater Orlando terminals from 05/18Z-06/00Z. Prevailing winds will be ESE from 5-15 KT. && .MARINE... Issued at 854 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Through Sunday...Seas 2-3 FT with E/SE winds 5-15 KT through the period. A weak disturbance along with the daily sea/land breezes will promote isolated showers and storms, focused in the late overnight and morning hours for the marine area. Sun Night-Thu (previous disc.)...Overall favorable boating conditions expected with surface ridge axis nearby and only small convective chances Sun night-Tue, esp in the Gulf Stream, and decreasing coverage into mid- week. Expect increasing temperatures with a daily sea breeze - though inland push will be a bit delayed/slower into late next week. SE winds 10-15 kts Sun night- Mon veer SRLY Mon overnight, as well as Tue-Wed nights. Seas of 2-3 ft persist through the period, but could find some 4 ft wave heights sneaking into the local waters Wed night- Thu. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Sunday-Saturday) Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Sunday...High pressure will continue to dominate the region, with the east coast sea breeze forecast to form once again on Sunday. Adequate moisture coupled with shortwave energy traversing through the area will support isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms to form along the sea breeze once again as it pushes inland in the afternoon. The greatest potential for convection to form will be west of I-95, with the highest rain chances (PoP 30-40 percent) occurring across much of the area in the afternoon, and especially across the western interior where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur. Much like today, the main storm threats will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Onshore winds will increase to 8-12 mph behind the sea breeze, with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s to low 90s across the interior under mostly to partly sunny skies. Sun Night-Mon Night...Shortwave high pressure ridging aligns across the FL peninsula thru early Mon, then pushes seaward ahead of approaching weak shortwave troughing. At the surface, high pressure ridging across north-central FL drops further south into central FL. There will be a late day/early evening (east-west) sea breeze collision Sun-Mon, likely just west of the Kissimmee River up thru Lake County. Most convection likely west of our coverage warning area, but could see some activity across Lake County Sun evening. Otherwise, some ISOLD-WDLY SCT convection across the local coastal waters (mainly Gulf Stream) each night/morning. An ISOLD threat will exist in the morning/early afternoon on Mon along the coast as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland (10-20pct). There will be some notably drier air (esp south) across the area on Mon compared with Sun and overall PoPs will be lower. Highs ranging in the M80s along the coast and U80s to L90s into the interior. Tue-Sat...A mid-level (500 mb) ridge builds over the FL peninsula and the resulting subsidence will increase the hot and dry conditions. Temperatures warming through the period reaching the M90s as early as Tue/Wed across the interior becoming widespread M90s (perhaps a few U90s) into Fri. Along the immediate coast (barrier islands), daily sea breezes will hold max temps to the M80s Tue, then U80s Wed-Fri. But inland portions of the coastal counties (west of I-95) will reach the L90s. Fri continues to look like the hottest day as the ridge axis slips farther south and offshore (SW) flow dominates with a much delayed sea breeze. This should allow max temps to reach the L90s even at the coast with widespread M90s mainland. Only slightly cooler on Sat, with L90s I-4 corridor and L-M90s southward. Although dewpoints and humidities will not be oppressive due to drier air, wet bulb globe temps indicate a Moderate to High heat risk. Consistent overnight mins in the 60s with some occasional L70s possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Sunday... Sensitive fire weather conditions continue across the interior. Min RHs drop to around 40 pct in and around southern Lake County and 45-50 pct across the rest of the interior. Light southeasterly winds become easterly and increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon behind the east coast sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible along the sea breeze in the afternoon and into the evening hours. Extended Discussion Modified (Sun evening-Fri)...Increasing heat and slightly drier conditions next week will produce min RH values falling to around 35% for much of the area inland from the coast by mid-week. ISOLD lightning storms will be possible Sun evening (well inland) and again on Mon mainly over the interior late day/early evening, with ISOLD-WDLY SCT showers near the coast in the mornings. However, widespread wetting rainfall is not forecast through the next 7 days, so further fuel drying is expected. Temperatures will gradually warm each day, reaching the M90s across the interior by Wed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 85 68 85 / 10 30 10 20 MCO 69 89 69 89 / 10 40 20 20 MLB 72 84 70 84 / 20 20 10 20 VRB 71 86 68 86 / 20 20 10 10 LEE 71 89 70 89 / 20 50 40 30 SFB 69 89 68 89 / 10 30 10 20 ORL 70 89 69 89 / 10 40 20 20 FPR 70 86 68 85 / 20 20 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Heil LONG TERM...Weitlich AVIATION...Heil