Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
189 FXUS62 KMLB 040838 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 438 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 428 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Key Messages: -A Few Showers and Lightning Storms Possible This Afternoon and Evening. -Increasing Heat Next Week With Highs Reaching Well Into the 90s Over the Interior. Today-Tonight...Increasing moisture plus a mid-level shortwave swinging through will support a few showers and lightning storms along the sea breeze as it moves inland through the afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure remains draped down the Atlantic seaboard, continuing southeasterly surface flow and favoring earlier development and quicker inland movement of the east coast sea breeze. Light southeasterly winds this morning become easterly 10-15 mph in the afternoon (closer to 10 mph across the western interior), with gust up to 20 mph especially along the coast. This will once again keep afternoon highs along the coastal corridor around normal in the to the L-M80s, but inland locations warm back up above normal to the U80s-90. Overnight lows settle back to the U60s-L70s. We`ll see increasing coverage of showers over the Atlantic waters, especially in the early morning and overnight, as the environment becomes more favorable. Some of these showers could move onshore, supporting 20 pct PoPs along the Treasure Coast into Brevard County a bit through the morning. Afternoon showers and lightning storms will be possible along the sea breeze once it gets going, so have 20 pct PoPs west of I-95 starting at 2 PM, increasing to 30 pct across the interior at 5 PM. PoPs drop below 20 pct for most areas after 8 PM, but linger across the interior into the late evening. Overnight, 20 pct PoPs shift back to the coast for those onshore moving showers. Most of the additional moisture is forecast to arrive later in the afternoon (PWATs near Leesburg hold 1.2-1.3" until around 8 PM, then increase to 1.5-1.6") and be more abundant in the mid- levels initially, so overcoming dry air at the surface and aloft will be a significant hurdle for deep convection on the eastern half of the peninsula. But with a good enough oomph from the sea breeze, 500mb temperatures decreasing to -10C will be able to support lightning storms capable of at least occasional cloud to ground lightning, possibly frequent lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours. Best chances for lightning storms will be across the western interior in the late afternoon to evening. A Moderate Risk for dangerous rip currents continues at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard, and never swim alone. Sunday-Monday...High pressure ridge axis is forecast to remain just north of the area and support an E-SE flow across the area. Isolated to scattered showers may push onshore in the morning along the coast, developing into lightning storms during the afternoon inland from the coast. A sea breeze collision is favored on the western side of the peninsula. Modest low level moisture will support PoPs between 25-40 percent Sunday. Lower coverage is forecast Monday as some drier air moves in around the southern periphery of the ridge. Have drawn up to 30 PoP from Orlando north and west in the afternoon, 20 percent or less elsewhere. Above normal temperatures are forecast with highs ranging the mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s/low 90s across the interior. Tue-Fri...A mid level (500 mb) ridge builds over the FL peninsula and the resulting subsidence will increase the hot and dry conditions. Temperatures warming through the period reaching the mid 90s as early as Tue across the interior becoming widespread mid 90s Wed-Fri. Along the immediate coast (barrier islands), daily sea breezes will hold max temps to the mid 80s Tue, then upper 80s Wed-Thu. But inland portions of the coastal counties (west of I 95) will reach the lower 90s. Friday looks like the hottest day as the ridge axis slips farther south and offshore (SW) flow dominates with a much delayed sea breeze. This should allow max temps to reach the low 90s even at the coast with widespread mid 90s mainland. Although dewpoints and humidities will not be oppressive due to drier air, wet bulb globe temps indicate a Moderate to High heat risk. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 428 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds SE 5-10 kts this morning become E 10-15 kts in the afternoon after the ECSB develops and pushes through, around 16Z at the coastal terminals and between 17Z-21Z at the inland terminals. ISO SHRA/TSRA associated with the ECSB possible INVOF the inland terminals, so have VCSH starting 18Z- 19Z and running through 22-23Z, except KLEE until 05Z. Coverage not high enough for TEMPOs. Currently no VC mention at coastal terminals due to Erly flow pushing the ECSB inland before SHRA/TSRA can develop, but can`t rule out a brief impact. SHRA also expected to develop over the Atlantic waters, but currently low confidence in coverage and location. Will AMD as necessary if this activity looks to produce impacts. && .MARINE... Issued at 428 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Today-Tonight...A few showers and lightning storms possible, but otherwise favorable boating conditions. High pressure remains draped along the Atlantic seaboard and over Florida. Winds SE 5-10 kts north of the Cape and ESE 10-15 kts to the south early this morning back a bit as the sea breeze develops, increasing to 10-15 kts to the north and around 15 kts to the south by the evening, then settle back to SSE 5-10 kts to the north and SE 10-15 kts to the south late tonight. Seas 2-3 ft. Sun-Wed...Favorable boating conditions are forecast as high pressure remains in control. The Atlc ridge axis will be near 30N lat Sun then slip southward and bisect the FL peninsula by Tue- Wed. Southeast winds 10-15 kts Sun-Mon veer southerly Mon night and Tue night. An east coast sea breeze forecast to develop each afternoon, will back winds out of the E-SE near the coast Tue-Wed at 10-15 knots. Seas of 2-3 ft persist through the period. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday with isolated storms with decreasing coverage into mid week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 428 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Today...Sensitive fire weather conditions continue across the interior before additional moisture moves in later this evening. Min RHs drop to 35-40 pct in and around southern Lake County and 40-45 pct across the rest of the interior. Light southeasterly winds become easterly and increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon behind the east coast sea breeze. Isolated showers and lightning storms possible along the sea breeze, but highest chances well inland towards the western half of the peninsula. Substantial wetting rain is not expected. Increasing heat and slightly drier conditions next week will produce min RH values falling to around 35% for much of the area inland from the coast by mid-week. Isolated lightning storms will be possible this weekend into Monday mainly over the interior late day/early evening, with isolated to scattered showers near the coast in the mornings. However, widespread wetting rainfall is not forecast through the next 7 days, so further fuel drying is expected. Temperatures will gradually warm each day, reaching the mid 90s interior by Wed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 84 68 85 68 / 20 10 30 10 MCO 89 69 88 69 / 20 10 40 10 MLB 84 70 84 70 / 10 20 30 10 VRB 85 68 85 68 / 20 20 30 10 LEE 90 70 88 70 / 30 20 40 10 SFB 89 69 88 68 / 20 10 40 10 ORL 89 69 88 70 / 30 10 40 10 FPR 84 68 85 68 / 20 20 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haley LONG TERM...Kelly AVIATION...Haley