247
FNUS74 KMOB 011017
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for Chick Cpt 439 440 441...USFS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
517 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Light winds this morning will become east to southeast
today and tonight. Modest east to southeast transport winds combined
with a deep mixing layer, dispersions are expected to be a low Generally
Good. Stronger transport winds are expected Thursday, bringing Good
daytime dispersions.

Fog potential and other remarks...Fog development is possible at
the burn site this morning, then again tonight.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Areas of fog early in
                    the morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...122-2256 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....East 3 to 5 mph.
Transport winds m/s.East 1 to 2 meters/second.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 44.
LVORI...............6.
Stability class.....2.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........25  27  28  23  18  13  16  20  23  24
Weather cov.....ARS
Weather type....FOG
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............66  71  78  82  84  86  87  88  89  89
RH..............97  84  71  58  49  43  40  38  35  37
20 FT wind dir..ESE SE  SE  SE  ESE ESE ESE E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..1   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   5   5
20 FT wind gust.2   3   3   3   6   6   6   6   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.1 1.7 3.2 4.9 6.4 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.2
Mix hgt (km)....0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  ESE ESE E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Trans wind dir..SE  SE  ESE ESE E   E   E   E   E   E
Trans spd (m/s).1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Dispersion idx..4   5   11  21  31  38  41  41  43  43
LVORI...........8   5   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...122-2195 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 7 mph shifting to the south 5 to
                    8 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds m/s.East around 2 meters/second shifting to the
                    south 2 to 4 meters/second in the late evening
                    and overnight.
Dispersion index....43 decreasing to 2.
LVORI...............6.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........25  27  27  27  27  24  20  17  23  28  34  43
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............87  83  78  75  72  70  67  66  65  64  63  62
RH..............42  49  58  66  73  81  90  97  100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..E   ESE ESE SSE S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SSE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   3   3   3
Mix hgt (kft)...7.2 3.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Mix hgt (km)....2.2 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.E   E   ESE SE  S   S   S   S   SSW S   SSE SSE
Transp wind spd.5   6   6   7   8   8   7   7   6   6   5   5
Trans wind dir..E   E   ESE SE  S   S   S   S   SSW S   SSE SSE
Trans spd (m/s).2   3   3   3   4   4   3   3   3   3   2   2
Dispersion idx..43  3   3   3   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2
LVORI...........1   2   3   3   4   5   6   8   9   9   10  10

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......5700 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...122-1737 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 14 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 2 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....2 increasing to 83.
LVORI...............6.
Stability class.....2.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........53  62  51  41  30  31  32  33  37  41  45  50
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............63  63  65  72  77  83  86  87  88  88  87  85
RH..............100 100 100 81  71  55  48  43  40  40  40  45
20 FT wind dir..SSE SE  SE  SSE SSE SSE SSE SSE SSE S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   5   6   7   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.3   3   6   7   9   10  13  13  13  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 2.1 3.7 4.7 5.7 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.9
Mix hgt (km)....0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5
Transp wind dir.SSE SSE S   SSE SSE S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   6   6   6   9   13  13  13  13  14  14  13
Trans wind dir..SSE SSE S   SSE SSE S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).2   3   3   3   4   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Dispersion idx..2   5   6   10  25  55  72  82  80  78  74  74
LVORI...........10  9   8   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...16
Requested by...Ryan Barnett
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412794.0/MOB
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan.barnett@usda.gov