Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
088
FNUS74 KMOB 032221
FWSMOB
Spot Forecast for Chick Cpt 439 440 441...USFS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
521 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 CDT on May 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue on Saturday,
with rain chances at the burn site around 30 percent each day.
Minimum relative humidity values will remain well above critical
thresholds. Transport winds for both Saturday and Sunday will
generally be out of the south. Max wind gusts will be around
10-15 mph for both afternoons. Afternoon dispersions will be
generally good Saturday (indices around 55-65) and generally good
to good Sunday (indices around 45-50).
Fog potential and other remarks...Patchy fog could be possible
each day the next two days reducing visibilities to around 1
mile.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
early in the evening. Patchy fog overnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................2 until 1900, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...122-1402 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast 3
to 5 mph overnight, then shifting to the north
around 3 mph after 3 am shifting to the
southeast after 3 am.
Transport winds m/s.Southwest around 4 meters/second shifting to
the south 2 to 4 meters/second in the evening,
then shifting to the southeast 1 to 2
meters/second overnight shifting to the north
around 1 meters/second after 3 am shifting to
the southeast.
Dispersion index....52 decreasing to 4.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....4.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........76 76 56 67 55 58 56 62 51 53 49 57
Weather cov.....CHC PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
Weather type....RW FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov........SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).30 10 10 10 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0
LAL.............2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............79 76 73 72 70 69 68 68 67 66 65 65
RH..............64 74 79 81 87 90 90 90 93 97 97 97
20 FT wind dir..S SSW SSE SSE S SSE S S S N S SSE
20 FT wind spd..7 8 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 0 3 5
20 FT wind gust.9 13 9 9 9 7 7 7 6 6 7
Mix hgt (kft)...4.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Mix hgt (km)....1.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.SW SW S S S S SSE ESE S N SSE SE
Transp wind spd.10 8 8 7 5 5 3 5 3 3 3 3
Trans wind dir..SW SW S S S S SSE ESE S N SSE SE
Trans spd (m/s).4 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1
Dispersion idx..52 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2
LVORI...........1 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog early
in the morning. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2 until 1600, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...122-1402 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 7 mph shifting to the southwest 7 to
8 mph in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.Southeast around 1 meters/second shifting to
the southwest 3 to 4 meters/second in the late
morning and afternoon.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 44.
LVORI...............6.
Stability class.....2.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........57 57 57 37 28 30 29 33 41 34 46 30
Weather cov.....PTY PTY PTY SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Weather type....FOG FOG FOG RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 30 30
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3
Temp............65 66 68 72 78 81 83 86 86 87 87 86
RH..............100 97 93 87 74 65 61 53 53 52 52 51
20 FT wind dir..N N SSE S S S SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW
20 FT wind spd..0 0 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9
20 FT wind gust. 7 9 9 9 10 13 13 13 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.1 3.1 3.1
Mix hgt (km)....0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.9
Transp wind dir.SE SE S S SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SW
Transp wind spd.3 3 5 6 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8
Trans wind dir..SE SE S S SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SW
Trans spd (m/s).1 1 2 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 4 4
Dispersion idx..2 4 5 11 19 32 41 48 48 45 39 39
LVORI...........10 9 8 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1900, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 64.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening and
overnight becoming light. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...122-945 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 8 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 2 to 4 meters/second.
Dispersion index....39 decreasing to 4.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....4.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........38 44 49 35 50 49 47 46 45 45 44 48
Weather cov.....CHC
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............85 82 75 73 72 71 70 69 68 67 66 65
RH..............53 61 82 84 84 86 90 93 96 98 100 100
20 FT wind dir..SSW SSW SSW SW SSW SSW S S S S SSE SSE
20 FT wind spd..8 8 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.13 13 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Mix hgt (km)....0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.S SSW SW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW S
Transp wind spd.8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5
Trans wind dir..S SSW SW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW S
Trans spd (m/s).4 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2
Dispersion idx..39 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3
LVORI...........1 3 4 5 6 6 7 9 9 9 9 9
$$
Forecaster...3
Requested by...Ryan Barnett
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412925.2/MOB
.DELDT 05/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan.barnett@usda.gov