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000
FXUS63 KMPX 140350
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1050 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very dry conditions will lead to elevated fire weather
  conditions tomorrow.

- Soaking rain expected Monday night into Wednesday. Most
  locations should see over an inch of rain along with a few
  rumbles of thunder.

- Below-normal temperatures late this week into through next
  weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s expected. Sub- freezing
  lows are likely Thursday night and Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Full sunshine & gusty south winds have maximized the mixing
potential this afternoon, allowing for temperatures to warm into
the low 80s across western Minnesota and mid to upper 70s
elsewhere across central and southern Minnesota. Winds will
shift to northwesterly overnight as cold front moves through
the region, which will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler
tomorrow. Drier air behind the front and winds gusting to
around 20 mph will create another day with elevated fire weather
conditions.

A pattern shift comes early this week as a trough over the
central CONUS continues to deepen, & drives a vertically-
stacked low through the Upper Midwest Tuesday through Wednesday.
A region of showers & thunderstorms is expected to develop
ahead of this system Monday & mainly impact the Dakotas &
northern Minnesota. Some showers re possible during the day
Monday across western & southern Minnesota, but the
precipitation really begins Monday night as the precip shield
north of the low reaches the area. The heaviest & most
widespread rain is expected through the day on Tuesday as the
surface low & strongest forcing skirts along northern Iowa &
southern Minnesota. Rainfall will taper off through the day on
Wednesday as the low exits the region off to the east. Model
guidance is fairly consistent on the track of the low mainly
staying south of the region, meaning most of Minnesota &
Wisconsin remains on the cooler northern side of this system,
This should limit the threat for severe weather, although
scattered thunderstorms are likely Tuesday when the forcing will
be strongest over the area. Ensemble guidance suggests high
likelihood for the entire area to see at least an inch of rain
Monday through Wednesday, with a high end potential of 2.5-3"
wherever multiple rounds of showers & thunderstorms imp[act the
same location. Guidance suggests the best chance for these
higher-end rainfall amounts will setup across southwest
Minnesota, with rainfall amounts generally decreasing east &
north into northern Wisconsin.

Much colder air builds into the region behind the midweek
system as a sprawling region of Canadian high pressure builds
into the central CONUS through the weekend. Daytime temperatures
will likely be around 10 degrees below normal with highs in the
40s. Meanwhile, freezing temperatures are looking more likely
for the entire area (outside of the inner Twin Cities metro)
Thursday & Friday night, which could damage any new and
blossoming vegetation. Below-normal temperatures continue
through the weekend, with a gradual warming to more normal
temperatures by Tuesday. Isolated diurnal rain showers are
possible over the weekend with the cold air aloft, but no
appreciable rainfall is expected going in to next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Clear skies expected through the period. Winds will turn
northwest behind a front by the early overnight, then becoming
gustier midday Sunday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR early, then MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. -TSRA likely. Wind SE 15-20G25-30kts.
WED...MVFR/IFR. -RA likely. Wind N bcmg NE 20G30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Borghoff