646
FXUS63 KMQT 160515
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
115 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and dry weather with borderline elevated fire weather
  across the eastern UP on Thursday.
- Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms spread across Upper
  Michigan Thursday and Thursday night. Additional showers and storms
  are possible Saturday and the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the northern plains
which moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu. Quiet and dry
weather will continue through tonight. Deeper moisture and 850-500
mb q-vector convergence moves into the far west late tonight. Model
trends continue to be slower bringing the pcpn into the area tonight
and slowed it down into the far west late. This was the only major
change made to the going forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The extended period forecast is mostly on track with rain chances
spreading east across the UP Thursday and Thursday night followed by
a dry stretch before the next rain chances arrive on Saturday.
Otherwise, mostly dry weather is expected with highs mainly in the
60s/70s and lows mainly in the 40s/50s.

The upcoming rain chances are mostly on track with best chances
across the west on Thursday closer to the low pressure center. Rain
chances shift to the east Thursday night and should be enhanced by
the nocturnal LLJ. Amounts are expected to be light (<0.25")
everywhere, but there may be a few locally higher amounts across the
western and eastern UP if thunderstorms occur. The late arrival of
rain chances across the eastern UP suggests another day of
borderline elevated fire wx conditions across the eastern UP where
partly sunny skies should warm highs up to around 70F.

Rain chances shift into Ontario Friday morning with the most likely
outcome being dry weather until a cool front moves into the area on
Saturday. It`s worth noting that 12z NAM and especially the 3km NAM
developed shra/thunderstorms along lake breeze boundaries Friday
afternoon. This seems to be an outlier solution stemming from the
NAMs moist bias and 18z runs did not show that potential increasing
confidence in the going dry forecast.

The next system of interest is associated with a nearly vertically
stacked low pressure of Saskatchewan Friday night. This systems warm
front pushes across our area Friday or Friday night setting the
stage for a warm Saturday with temps possibly breaching the 80F
threshold across the interior west. The current forecast may be
bringing PoPs into the area too quickly and the operational GFS
continues to downplay this rain potential. However, there is
increasing ensemble support for another wave of light rain showers
Sat or Sat night. Once again, a few embedded thunderstorms are
possible but there isn`t an established feed of Gulf moisture so I`m
skeptical of thunder chances.

The cold front pushes south and east of our area Sunday morning
likely indicating a drier and somewhat cooler Sunday. Forecaster
confidence diminishes quickly thereafter as model spread increases
considerably. There continues to be some signal for cyclogenesis
over the Central Plains along the trailing cold front, but timing
and location details are murky. If this system develops and tracks
into the Great Lakes as ensembles hint may be the case then a period
of steady and perhaps even heavy rainfall will be possible toward
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions to prevail through this morning at CMX and SAW, but
IWD is progged to deteriorate to MVFR around mid morning as the next
system brings rain showers to the area.  CMX and SAW will follow and
become MVFR later this afternoon.  Will carry a few hours of IFR at
IWD during the afternoon, but that is low confidence. Meanwhile,
east-northeasterly winds will shift to the southeast, but will
remain under the 12 kt threshold. And, IWD will see a shift to
southwesterly before the end of this TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 517 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Northeast winds around 20 knots are occurring over the far western
lake this afternoon as a low pressure approaches from the Northern
Plains. The pressure gradient support northeast winds around 20
knots continuing tonight into Thursday afternoon when east-southeast
winds up to 20 kts spread across central and eastern portions of the
lake. The low pressure exits the area by Friday morning leading to a
period of light winds of generally 20 knots or less amidst stable
conditions into Saturday morning. A cold front tracks across the
lake Saturday into Sunday with southeast winds increasing to around
20 kts ahead of it then southwest winds up to 25 kts behind the
front on Sunday. A few thunderstorms may (15% chance) traverse the
lake from west to east with the front Saturday (west) and Saturday
night (east).

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...EK
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...EK