167
FXUS64 KMRX 121422
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1022 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

No changes to the forecast for today during the morning update.
Dry, mostly sunny weather is expected with highs in the 70s for
most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Key Messages:

1. Tranquil, pleasant weather will persist during the short term.

Discussion:

Not much to talk about in the short term period. Some patchy dense
fog is present again in the north this morning, but dryer air in
place across the region has largely inhibited fog development.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see some patchy fog elsewhere by daybreak
but it will be very sparse.

Otherwise, an upper low over the northeast CONUS this morning will
shift eastward into the Atlantic by late this afternoon and early
evening. Behind it, upper ridging will shift east from the
Mississippi river valley towards the southern Appalachians. We`ll
have tranquil weather across the CWA as a result, with afternoon
highs rising back up to near normal values today and mostly sunny
skies aside from some high clouds in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Key Message:

1. An active start to the work week, with rain and thunderstorm
chances through at least Wednesday. Another system looks likely at
the end of the week.

Discussion:

The start of the long term period Monday, will begin another active
pattern for our area. A trough will move eastward from the central
part of the country following the exiting ridge. SPC only has the
area under general thunder for Monday, which makes sense given the
lack of instability. Leading up to the system, winds will be a bit
gusty over the Appalachians and southern plateau Monday afternoon
into early Tuesday. Right now, winds appear to remain below Wind
Advisory. Tuesday still remains to be wettest of the system, with
categorical PoPs holding strong in the forecast for the past two
days. SPC has us within general thunder with MRGL to our south. The
low pressure center is expected to slowly shift eastward through
Wednesday, where it appears re-development will occur off of the
Atlantic Coast. Wednesday`s precipitation will be more northwest
flow induced over the terrain and best chances overall for far
northeast parts of our forecast area, including SW Virginia. WPC is
still going for MRGL for flash flooding on Tuesday.

Thursday tries to dry out with ridging and high pressure following
the Tuesday system. Most of the area should be dry with possible
isolated activity across the Appalachians and SW Virgina.
Discrepancies starting to show between models already, show precip
from the previous system still trying to wrap around from the coast.

To end the long term Friday and Saturday, another similar tracking
system will make it`s way to the Tennessee Valley from the west.
Although models are in great disagreement this far out, the only
sure thing is more rain and thunderstorms can be expected to end the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

KTRI had some 1/2SM or lower VSBY much of the night and the first
few images of visible satellite imagery shows fog is still
nearby. The latest ob shows it is not affecting the terminal, but
will leave a TEMPO for fog in there through 13z just in case it
drifts back onto the airport grounds. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected at all sites through the 12z period. Some guidance builds
fog back into KTRI again tonight, but believe that increasing high
clouds will prohibit that. Expect some gusty winds at KTRI this
afternoon, but light winds will be seen elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             80  58  71  62 /   0  10  70  70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  76  54  73  61 /   0   0  50  70
Oak Ridge, TN                       77  54  73  60 /   0   0  50  60
Tri Cities Airport, TN              73  49  75  58 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CD
LONG TERM....KS
AVIATION...CD