Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 290025
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
825 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Forecast on track this evening with no significant updates.
Dewpoints were running a few degrees lower than previous forecast
but that is because winds are still up. Once winds settle down
over the next few hours dewpoints will begin to rise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Key Messages:

1. Tonight, temperatures dropping into the 30s across much of the
area with patchy to areas of frost development.

2. Dry air and low relative humidity Friday afternoon.

This afternoon, a deep upper trough is just to the north of the
Tennessee Valley with surface high pressure centered to the west
southwest. A cold front is just off the east coast, which has
continued north to northeast winds over the region with gusty
winds across the eastern Tennessee Valley at times due to the
pressure gradient from east to west. Cold air advection today has
kept temperatures several degrees below normal. Deep mixing have
produced low humidities of 25 to 30 percent along with wind gusts
to 20 to 30 mph. This is drying out fuels. The forecast for
tonight and Friday. Winds will decrease as the mid to upper level
trough shifts east and surface high center to the southwest moves
closer to the forecast area. Winds will stay up for awhile but
should drop later tonight. With the dry air lows should drop into
the mid to upper 30s. Patchy to widespread frost will be possible
so a Frost Advisory has been issued for areas in the growing
season.

On Friday the morning will start cold with frost in sheltered
valleys. Temperatures will warm several degrees with southwest
winds developing by late morning. Upper level ridging will build
into the area. Winds will be gusty in the afternoon and relative
humidities should again be be 25 to 30 percent. A Fire Danger
statement may need to be issued as soil moistures will be lower.
Will have night shift look at new data to decide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Key Messages:

1. Much warmer this weekend. Chances of rain mainly across southwest
Virginia Saturday and Sunday.

2. An upper level system will bring unsettled weather and warmer
temperatures for next week, especially thunderstorm potential on
Tuesday.

3. Cooler temperatures behind a cold front Wednesday and Thursday of
next week.

Discussion:

Weak upper ridging will be in place to start the weekend period with
a surface high moving off toward the southeast. An area of low
pressure associated with a weak shortwave will move into the Great
Lakes Saturday. A front will become stalled to our north across the
Ohio Valley. As this time, the front looks to remain far enough
north to keep PoPs north of much of the area, with the exception of
southwest Virginia. Southerly low level flow will advect a warmer
airmass this weekend and early next week as well with highs back
into the mid to upper 70`s by Saturday through Monday.

The next weather system develops early next week as a shortwave
trough moves out of the Rockies. This shortwave will induce an area
of low pressure that will lift into the Great Lakes by Tuesday. The
cold front doesn`t make its entrance into the Tennessee Valley until
Tuesday. There are some questions on the timing of the frontal
passage which may have an impact on instability, but there will be
sufficient deep layer shear for the potential for organized
thunderstorms. The SPC has included portions of the forecast area
into a Day 6 outlook which seems reasonable given the synoptic
pattern. Just based on the synoptic pattern and time of year, this
system will need to be monitored closely for severe weather
potential early next week across the region.

Behind the frontal passage Tuesday night into Wednesday, northwest
winds will bring in a much cooler airmass. Temperatures will drop
below normal for the latter part of the extended forecast period.
Rain chances look to linger into Wednesday post frontal passage as
northwest flow aloft increases. NBM seems to have a good handle on
this potential. The area dries out Wednesday night into Thursday as
high pressure develops from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions through the period. Light northerly winds
overnight. Winds shift out of the southwest tomorrow. TRI will be
gusty from late morning through the end of the period with gusts
up to 22kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             40  71  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  37  68  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       37  69  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              34  66  42  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Friday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-East
     Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-
     McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest
     Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-
     Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sullivan-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for Lee-Scott VA-
     Washington VA.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....Diegan
AVIATION...


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