017
FXUS65 KMSO 070746
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
146 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

.DISCUSSION...Windy conditions remain over the region today, with
gusts 40 to 50 mph along I-90 east of Missoula possible. Winds
across Flathead Lake will be elevated as well gusting 30 to 40
mph throughout the day, if your plans take you out on the lake
exercise caution.

Showers will be possible throughout the day in the mountains but
remain isolated in the valleys until after 6pm MDT this evening.
Precipitation amounts remain unchanged as most valleys have a
greater than 50% chance of receiving at least 0.25", the
exceptions being the Camas Prairie and Hells Canyon, ID, along
with valleys west of the Flathead in MT. Snow levels are still on
track to lower to around 4000 feet. Forecast models show a 50 to 60
percent chance of 6" of snow or more for locations such as Marias
Pass, Georgetown Lake, MacDonald Pass and Homestake Pass. Even
the high valleys of southwest Montana (Butte, Anaconda,
Philipsburg) will see snowfall, with a 70 to 80 percent chance of
seeing 2" of snow by mid day Wednesday. Winter Weather Advisories
have been issued for the Glacier National Park and Butte/Blackfoot
regions to account for snow travel and slick roads.

After this system a return of high pressure is expected.
Temperatures are forecast to warm up nicely, by Mothers Day, upper
70s in W. MT and 80s for north-central ID. Only 22% of the models
have the ridge breaking down by Mothers Day, but increase to 35%
by Monday and Tuesday.



&&

.AVIATION...A cool, wet, and windy weather pattern will remain in
place across the Northern Rockies through the next 36 hours. This
will keep periodic showers and lower ceilings in place across the
area and at most airfields beginning after 08/00z. Conditions
will gradually deteriorate tonight as a secondary shortwave trough
rotates through the region. The snow level will lower to around
4000 feet by Tuesday night with accumulations, along with reduced
visibility and significantly lowered ceiling heights, expected at
KBTM. Breezy winds are also likely throughout the Northern Rockies
with gusts to 30 knots possible during the afternoon at KGPI,
KMSO, and KBTM.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 11 AM MDT Wednesday
     for West Glacier Region.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for
     Flathead/Mission Valleys.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Butte/Blackfoot
     Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 11 AM MDT Wednesday
     for Butte/Blackfoot Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$