Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 240725
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1225 AM PDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1223 AM PDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Unsettled weather continues through this afternoon with rain
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. A bit drier for
Monday into Tuesday before rain chances return for mid week into
the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1223 AM PDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A closed upper low over SW Oregon will gradually devolve to an open-
wave trough as it drops southeast through NorCal today. The
associated surface cyclone will dissipate with remnant troughing
locating just offshore from NorCal. The combination of steep
mid/upper lapse rates and the nearby surface trough will lead to a
continuation of scattered instability showers across the region
primarily during the first half of today. Like yesterday there
remains a little instability so can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm or two, but by and large showers are the most likely
forecast outcome for most. The primary weather hazards for today are
brief locally heavy rainfall, small hail, and perhaps a lightning
strike or two. Flooding impacts are unlikely as the steering flow
remains progressive and northwesterly. Readings will remain cool
with highs mostly in the 50s to around 60. Lows tonight will dip
into the 40s, with some upper 30s in southern Monterey County.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1223 AM PDT Sun Mar 24 2024

High pressure will prevail aloft for Monday and Tuesday with drier
conditions and a slight warming trend.

A cold front attendant to low pressure over the northeast Pacific
will bring renewed rain chances for Wednesday into Thursday. Rain
amounts with this system appear beneficial and not overly impactful.

An upper low looks to evolve somewhere in the vicinity for late week
into the weekend. Deterministic models and their ensembles are in
good agreement with the general pattern, but differ somewhat in the
strength and placement of the upper low. It does appear that a
better moisture tap will accompany this system with the potential
for coastal ranges to receive 1-2" of rainfall. However there are
still some details to resolve so keep up with forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM PDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Rain showers will continue to decrease in coverage and intensity
through the night with chances becoming unmentionable by tomorrow
afternoon. While chances for thunderstorms (30%) still exist through
Sunday morning, only a few lightning strikes were recorded within
the area today and today`s environment was supposed to be the more
favorable of the two days. VFR conditions prevail through the TAF
period with reductions in flight category possible if a shower
passes directly over a terminal. Winds tomorrow will be gusty out of
the W/NW with gusts of 20-30 knots to be expected.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy westerly flow. Rain
shower activity will continue to diminish through the TAF period.
Winds tomorrow will be gusty out of the W/NW with gusts up to 30
knots to be expected.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with breezy southwesterly
flow at MRY and MVFR with a rain shower passing over SNS. Rain
shower activity will continue to diminish through the TAF period.
Winds will be gusty (20-25 knots) out of the W/NW at both
terminals by late-morning tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1055 PM PDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Scattered showers with slight chance for thunderstorms continues
overnight tonight into Sunday morning across the coastal waters.
If  a thunderstorm develops, winds will become locally gusty which
will  cause dangerous conditions for small crafts. Generally,
westerly  winds will become more northerly overnight tonight and
increase to  become fresh to strong. Moderate period westerly
swell and elevated  wave heights will persist before diminishing
Sunday into next week.  Additional northwest swell trains will
propagate through the coastal  waters next week. Rain chances
decrease moving into Sunday afternoon  with calmer weather for the
beginning of the work week as high  pressure briefly builds.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes
     to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Pinos to
     Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....SPM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Kennedy

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