Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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925 FXUS63 KOAX 111048 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 548 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast Sunday through Thursday. Highest precipitation chances (60-80%) during that timeframe are Sunday night into Monday. No severe weather is currently anticipated. - Seasonal daytime temperatures are expected through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 420 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Another night of quiet weather; the clear skies have allowed for unobstructed views of the aurora for those lucky enough to have caught a glimpse. Surface analysis doesn`t show a lot of meaningful features, but a cold front is pushing through the Chicago and St Louis metros tied to a vigorous shortwave over the Great Lakes. Upper level ridging over the Northern Plains is partially responsible for the loose surface gradient and quiet overnight winds. An upper level low spins counter-clockwise over Las Vegas. .TODAY... Surface high pressure remains in place today, leading to sunny skies and a 5-15 mph warming westerly wind. Expect most locations to peak near 80F this afternoon. Clouds increase overnight as the upper level low approaches from the southwest. .SUNDAY and MONDAY... Likely PoPs wait until Sunday afternoon as the upper wave opens up and pushes east as a lee cyclone develops as a clipper drags a cold front across the Northern Plains. The surface low will track across Kansas and will leave south-central and southeast Nebraska cooler than the northeastern corner of the state and western Iowa. Surface instability will be maximized at maybe 2000 J/kg along the SoDak state line where sunshine will be maximized. The lack of shear should preclude a threat for severe weather. Rain and thunderstorms will continue east overnight Sunday and over the first half of Monday. QPF ranges from nothing in northeastern Nebraska to close to an inch along the Missouri and Kansas state lines. .THE REST OF NEXT WEEK... Tuesday brings temporarily dry conditions and a return to mostly sunny skies ahead of another upper wave that brings a chance of rain and thunderstorms for Wednesday. 00Z deterministic models have significant differences in solutions, but all keep the wave positively titled which will help keep shear low. GEFS (ensemble) keeps the chance of CAPE > 1000 J/kg at less than 10%. The NBM and Euro ensemble members concur. All this leads me to believe that the severe weather threat for Wednesday night is low. This will leave Wednesday and Thursday on the lower end of the 70s. Friday and Saturday deserve better chances of hitting 80. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 546 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions through the period. Light and variable winds at TAF issuance, becoming westerly 7-9 knots through the afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...DeWald