Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 241522
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1022 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1003 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

The atmosphere this morning is very dry. PWAT value from the 12Z
sounding here at OHX is a scant 0.28", which gives us a PWAT+
value of 51 (observed PWAT is just 51% of the daily mean). Despite
the cool start to the day, temperatures will warm up considerably
this afternoon as a surface ridge slides across Middle Tennessee
and winds pick up quickly from the southeast. Winds will further
increase on Monday and the inevitable Wind Advisory has already
been put in place beginning tomorrow afternoon. There may be a
few showers that sneak across the Tennessee River before sunset,
but any appreciable activity will hold off until after 00Z.
Meanwhile, fire weather concerns continue to today and tomorrow.
Today, there is a marginal fire danger across all of Middle
Tennessee owing to low afternoon RH values and increasing surface
winds. Tomorrow, the fire weather danger is restricted to areas
east of I-65, but also includes possible red flag conditions for
parts of the Cumberland Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1003 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A strong cold front will close in on Middle Tennessee Monday
night, with widespread showers and storms developing during the
evening. Fortunately, the risk of severe storms remains very low
for Middle Tennessee. The biggest threat continues to be windy
conditions. Surface winds will peak during the overnight period,
with 850 mb winds reaching 60-80 kts by 06Z. This is expected to
translate to surface winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 45-50 mph.
For this reason the Wind Advisory will run until 12Z Tuesday, and
could be further extended if needed on Tuesday. The showers and
storms will start to exit the mid state during the day Tuesday,
but some activity will likely linger into the evening. The actual
fropa won`t occur until Tuesday afternoon and evening, several
hours after the heaviest showers exit the region. Storm total QPF
values have decreased somewhat, and now range from a little over
1/2" near the TN/KY line to 1-2" across most areas south of I-40.
The remainder of this week and weekend come with minimal rain
chances. While cooler air will return following Tuesday`s fropa,
temperatures will warm quite nicely the remainder of the week,
with highs in 70s returning for Easter weekend. The next active
weather system probably won`t arrive until next Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail thru 25/12Z. High level cloudiness
will increasingly stream into mid state region thru 25/12Z. AC
deck possible CKV by 25/09Z. Of particular concern to aviation
interest is significant enhancement of low level atmospheric
gradient winds ahead of approaching wx system supporting LLWS at
top of 2kft 45-50kts 25/03Z CKV - 25/07Z CSV. Initial NE/E
sustained winds 5-10kts will slowly veer to SE with gusts
25-30kts possible thru 25/12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  47  65  56 /   0   0  10  90
Clarksville    65  48  64  54 /   0   0  10  80
Crossville     62  41  59  48 /   0   0   0  80
Columbia       67  48  64  55 /   0   0  10  90
Cookeville     64  45  62  52 /   0   0   0  80
Jamestown      63  42  62  48 /   0   0   0  80
Lawrenceburg   67  47  64  55 /   0   0  10  90
Murfreesboro   68  47  64  53 /   0   0  10  90
Waverly        67  50  64  54 /   0   0  20  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for Bedford-
Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....JB Wright


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