Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 222330
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
630 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 946 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Earlier light showers have exited the area for now, but
additional showers will develop later this afternoon and continue
into the evening. A surface/upper trough is situated to our west,
so look for deeper moisture to spread into Middle Tennessee during
the next several hours. During the evening, a surface low will
pass by to our south, so expect the active weather to end rather
quickly as the low tracks eastward and pulls the moisture away.
Total QPF values resulting from this system range from <0.1"
around Dover to >0.5" for parts of the Cumberland Plateau and
areas near the Alabama state line. Drier, cooler air will work its
way into the area tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 946 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Sunday will bring mostly sunny and warmer weather to Middle
Tennessee. This will be our last "quiet" weather day for awhile.
Expect increasing cloudiness and increasing surface winds on
Monday as the next active weather system approaches the region
from the west. Winds will further increase Monday night with wind
gusts of 40+ mph possible. If current trends persist, it is likely
that we will be issuing a Wind Advisory for at least Monday
night. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will sweep through the mid
state probably on Tuesday. While the primary low center will pass
far to our north, the atmospheric models do develop a secondary
surface low along the frontal boundary over Middle Tennessee on
Tuesday. The primary concern with this event is elevated surface
winds. The risk of severe storms appears to be quite low.
Meanwhile, showers will take their time exiting Middle Tennessee,
with PoPs lingering through Tuesday night and even into Wednesday
morning. Total QPF values resulting from this system range from
1" to 2", with the greatest amounts occurring near the Tennessee
River. Temperatures behind the front will cool off some, with
widespread lows in the 30s both Wednesday night and Thursday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

VFR conditions will degrade to MVFR at BNA/MQY/CKV and IFR at
CSV/SRB this evening as showers continue to impact the terminals.
Showers will exit CKV/BNA/MQY around 06z but continue to linger at
CSV/SRB through the overnight hours. Cigs will remain MVFR/IFR
through the morning before improving to VFR around lunchtime.
Winds will shift to the N prior to 06z and increase to 10-15 kts.
Gusts will increase to 20-25 kts early Saturday morning and
continue through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      47  60  36  68 /  80   0   0   0
Clarksville    42  58  33  64 /  60   0   0   0
Crossville     46  55  30  63 / 100  20   0   0
Columbia       47  60  33  67 /  90   0   0   0
Cookeville     47  55  32  65 /  90  20   0   0
Jamestown      44  54  29  63 /  90  20   0   0
Lawrenceburg   49  59  33  67 /  90  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   48  59  33  68 /  90  10   0   0
Waverly        43  59  35  65 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Reagan


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