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000
FXUS61 KOKX 181014
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
614 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving warm front approaches from the southwest and
moves through the area into Thursday. High pressure briefly
builds in for Thursday night into Friday before a cold front
passes through Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure
then follows from Saturday afternoon through early next week. A
weak frontal system will impact the region mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast is on track with only minor changes needed. Previous
discussion follows.

Stacked low over south central Canada will move slowly ENE today,
with high amplitude upper level ridging over the northeast slowly
moving east. additionally, upper level ridging over the eastern
Great Lakes region shifts eastward today. At the surface, a
warm front continues its approach but looks to stall to the
southwest. A weak area of low pressure forms along this boundary
and treks southeast.

Chances for showers will continue today, but will slowly diminish
over the area as high pressure from southeastern Canada noses into
the Northeast. This, coupled with an incoming ridge aloft will bring
in just enough subsidence to bring showers to an end over much of
the forecast area by late this afternoon. Showers may transition to
just some drizzle given the abundant low level moisture with the
maritime high building in.

The high building in with the weak low to our south will mean a
strengthening easterly flow today. It does not look to be overly
windy, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts to 25 mph
along coastal sections this morning. Winds start to decrease this
afternoon as the high continues to nose into the region, with the
weak low well out to sea by this point.

The easterly flow will also mean cooler than normal temperatures for
Thursday, with highs only in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The high continues building into the region Thursday night into Friday
morning as the ridge axis pushes east, so dry conditions
expected through this time frame. The warm front gets suppressed
to the south due to the building high, but at the same time,
the cold front associated with the low in Canada advances east.
However, as the cold front pushes east the line of showers and
thunderstorms associated with it over the central Great Lakes
region weakens as it moves over the eastern Great Lakes. Further
weakening is expected as it runs into the high over the
Northeast, so just chance to slight chance for showers are
expected as this line moves through Friday night and Saturday
morning (lingering showers for eastern areas).

Temperatures recover somewhat on Friday, with highs in the 50s
region-wide. Even warmer conditions expected for Saturday with a
westerly flow and downsloping conditions expected after the passage
of the cold front. Went a couple of degrees above guidance for
highs, which are expected to be in the middle to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build into the region through the
second half of the weekend and remain in control of the weather
through Tuesday.

A 500mb trough then shifts through the Great Lakes on Tuesday with
an associated weak surface low and cold front. Rain chances increase
Tuesday night into Wednesday as this system moves across the region.
Drier weather returns for Thursday.


Temperatures will be just below normal on Sunday. Temperatures
rebound a few degrees on Monday through Wednesday with temperatures
at or just above normal. Temperatures fall back a degree or two
below normal behind the cold front on Thursday. Temperatures each
day will be in the upper 50s or 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Persistent pattern during the TAF period with low pressure and
a warm front approaching but staying south and west of the
region with high pressure to the northeast of the region.

MVFR or IFR everywhere to start with more widespread IFR towards
the second half of the night and into Thursday morning. Rain
showers are intermittent but eventually will become more steady
for the second half of the overnight period. Also, the rain may
be locally moderate to heavy at times. Can not rule out an
isolated embedded thunderstorm as well, however timing and
confidence too low to include in the TAF.

Rain showers will remain in the forecast through at least 18z,
however, they may be more intermittent. Rain chances lower
further this afternoon. Mainly IFR conditions are expected,
however improvement to MVFR late can not be ruled out.

Conditions start to improve late this evening and overnight to
MVFR then VFR for most terminals. Timing however amendments are
likely to adjust the timing.

Wind direction will be E to ENE for much of the TAF period.
Wind speeds will be near 10 kt tonight and then increase
Thursday to near 12-15 kt with gusts mainly in the 20-25 kt
range. KSWF expected to have lower winds near 10 kts or less
without gusts during the TAF period.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thu night: Showers end with slowly improving conditions
Thursday night. Improvement to MVFR then VFR expected.

Fri: VFR early, then MVFR afternoon and at night with a chance
of showers.

Sat: MVFR with showers ending in the early morning, becoming
VFR. W-WNW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Sun through Mon: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds will increase today with 25 to 30 kt gusts
expected on all waters as high pressure builds in from the
northeast.

Wind gusts diminish tonight as the high continues to build in
over the area. Non ocean waters will likely drop below 25 kt
early early tonight. The ocean waters will likely have SCA gusts
hang on for the first few hours of Thursday night before they
also come down below 25 kt.

Seas build to 4 to 7 ft on the ocean by this morning into the
afternoon, diminishing thereafter. However, they remain above or
right around 5 ft tonight into Friday. Have extended the SCA on
the ocean waters through tonight, but may need to extend the
SCA over the ocean into Friday with a persistent, though
slowly weakening easterly flow. Waves finally drop below 5 ft on
the ocean by Friday night.

High pressure will continue to build over the area waters for the
second half of the weekend and into the first part of next week.
This should keep conditions at sub-advisory level through at least
Tuesday night. Conditions may build back to SCA levels for Wednesday
with the next low pressure and associated cold front to
approach.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through trough next Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP