335
FXUS61 KOKX 161455
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1055 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure spins south of the area before slowly pulling away
to the southeast this afternoon. Weak high pressure then builds
in from the northeast Thursday night through Friday. High
pressure may remain in place as another frontal system and
potential wave of low pressure approach late weekend. High
pressure then builds in for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Forecast remains on track this morning. The steadiest rain has
moved north of the area. Mainly light rain or drizzle will
continue into the afternoon, mainly east of the NYC metro.

Winds will remain N/NE through much of the day at 10-20 mph
with localized gusts up to 30 mph. Highs today will be in the
low to middle 60s for much of the area, though some western
areas may rise into the upper 60s, still 5-10 degrees below
average.

Low pressure will slowly spin south away from Long Island into
this evening, then further offshore tonight. Most of the rain
should diminish, but cannot completely rule out some lingering
light rain/drizzle near the coast. High pressure begins nosing
in from the northeast tonight. Lows will be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure slides into the area from the north and
northeast in response to developing shortwave ridging over the
area, as the low pushes further offshore. This will result in
generally dry conditions on Friday with temperatures climbing
back up to seasonable values, despite partly to mostly cloudy
skies.

The next system approaches from the west into Friday night and
early Saturday, bringing with it a low chance for showers
approaching from the west into early Saturday morning. Most
global models show the frontal system slowly weakening as it
approaches the area with high pressure fighting to remain
overhead. A more robust low pressure system looks to develop
well to the southeast and push offshore Saturday into Saturday
night. Though there will remain a low chance of showers for
western areas, the trend in models to suppress the system to
the south has allowed for a drier forecast to take hold. Despite
the main energy shifting south, high pressure will allow for a
persistent NE/E wind over the area, keeping the region cooler
than average through the weekend under mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*Key Points*

*A drier trend in the pattern for the weekend.

*Below normal temperatures to start the period with a gradual
 warm up to near or slightly above normal by mid next week.

By Monday into Tuesday, model divergence continues as the more
progressive EC takes the low to the northeast and out of the region
while the GFS maintains a more cutoff solution and meanders the
surface low off the NC coast. Weak ridging builds in thereafter,
with a shortwave and low pressure system approaching from the west
late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure just south of Long Island this morning will begin
to track slowly south and weaken through tonight, while high
pressure builds in from the north.

Mainly light rain and/or drizzle is expected this morning, then
dissipating in coverage this afternoon. KSWF will be mainly
dry, but could see spotty light rain/drizzle. Looking for a
persistence forecast the next 18-24h with ceilings mainly MVFR
for NYC and the Lower Hudson Valley, and IFR/MVFR for the
eastern terminals.

N-NE winds early this morning will be strongest with G25-30kt
along the coast and 20-25kt elsewhere. Winds will be slow to
diminish through the day.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Ceilings may vary between IFR and low end MVFR this morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

Sunday and Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure south of the area will allow SCA conditions to
persist for all waters today with gusts upwards of 30 kt and
seas on the ocean 7-10 feet. Gusts taper off tonight but seas
remain elevated on the ocean above SCA thresholds through much
of the day on Friday.

Sub SCA conditions are likely thereafter into Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no additional hydrologic concerns for the rest of
today through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...DS/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...BC/DW
MARINE...DBR/MW
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MW