567
FXUS61 KPBZ 100510
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
110 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe storm potential will decrease after 10pm.
Isolated flooding could occur south of I-70. Cooler conditions
are anticipated over the weekend with a shift in the synoptic
pattern from the northwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- There will be a window of opportunity for strong to severe
  storms to develop south of I-70 through 11pm.
- Damaging wind and hail could occur in a few storms.
- Urban flooding may also occur in areas of training storms.
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8pm Update: A line of strong storms are currently tracking south
of I-70 at the moment. Small hall and gusts between 30mph to
45mph could occur in stronger cores. Some cells had periods of
stronger mid-level rotation. However, no funnel clouds or
tornadoes have been observed. Heavy rain has also been reported
across the region. A cell that passed over Morgantown, WV
measured 0.91 inches in an hour. Rain from training
thunderstorms will also be a threat until at least 11pm.

Previous Discussion:

The center of low pressure system is currently located in
central Indiana at the moment. Based on ground observations
across the region, the warm front is situated along I-70. Low-
level water vapor depicts pockets of drier air advancing into
south Ohio, which is helping break the cloud deck, raise
temperatures, and increase the potential for destabilization.

As the center of the low ventures east into the Ohio River
Valley, wind shear in the southern sector of the low will
increase rom the west/southwest. Therefore, with pockets of
instability and high vertical wind shear, the potential for
organized convection increases south of Pittsburgh late this
afternoon and into the early evening. The combination of fast
tracking icy cores within storms raises the concern for damaging
winds near or south of I-70.

With convection racing across the moisture boundary from west to
east, there is also a threat for isolated flooding south of
Pittsburgh. Urban areas will be vulnerable to flooding with low
flash flood guidance. Probability of widespread rainfall totals
for counties south of I-70 range from 35% to 60% (with higher
values located near Uniontown,PA and Morgantown,WV). However,
probabilities will likely increase for a small communicates
within this large scale area if rainfall rates range from 0.5 to
0.7 inches per hour.

The probability of severe storms decreases with the loss
diurnal heating and ongoing convection tainting the environment after
11pm. However, there could be a few storms that could continue
to produce lightning and heavy downpours.

With clouds, convection throughout the day, and cool northeast
flow, temperatures will likely trend cooler than average for
areas north of I-70; near average for areas south with in the
warm sector.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers chances continue into Friday.
- Below average temperatures are expected with northerly flow.
- Thunderstorms chances return Saturday afternoon.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Precipitation chances will remain across the region on Friday
due the slow progression of the trough over the Mid-Atlantic,
slowed down by ridging over the Mississippi River Valley.
Probability of higher rainfall amounts (0.25 inches to 0.45
inches) will generally be focused east and southeast of
Pittsburgh due to orographic lift. Elsewhere, showers will only
amount to less than quarter of an inch.

Ridging over eastern Ohio Friday night into early Saturday is
expected to decrease precipitation. Temperatures will remain
cooler than average under northerly flow.

By late morning Saturday, a new fast moving shortwave dives
southeast from the Great Lakes and returns showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the region. A few storms could be considered
strong given high shear and MUCAPE values between 500J/kg to
1000J/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler temperatures arrive by late week with highs in the 60s
  this weekend.
- Rain and thunderstorms are expected to return
  Tuesday/Wednesday.
- Severe storm potential remains low.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

A few light showers may remain along the ridge line early Sunday
as a trough exits east. Otherwise, dry and quiet weather return
for a majority of the day with building high pressure.
Temperatures will be near or slightly below average, depending
on have fast the clouds clear from the west.

Warmer than average temperatures Monday and will continue into
Wednesday as a slow moving low ejects out of the Great Plains
and reinforces southwest flow. As high pressure breaks down off
the Mid-Atlantic, showers and thunderstorms chances increase
Tuesday and Wednesday. Long range models at the moment project a
low probability of severe storms given weak shear and
instability.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A gradual decrease in cig height to IFR is expected for most
ports overnight with low level moisture in place, and as an
upper trough approaches the region. ZZV will likely stay MVFR,
with less favorable low level moisture for lower cigs.

Showers are expected to increase again later tonight into part
of Friday as the upper level trough crosses the region. Some
increase in cig heights are expected, though low MVFR should
remain until the rain tapers off from W-E later in the day after
the passage of the trough. VFR is then expected, though DUJ will
likely stay MVFR as the rain lasts until late afternoon/early
evening. Fog will likely develop Friday night where rain ends
late, and clearing occurs in the evening. Included IFR vsbys ar
DUJ for this potential.

.Outlook...
Patchy morning fog restrictions are possible Saturday morning.
Additional restrictions, along with showers and thunderstorms,
will overspread the region again Saturday into part of Saturday
night with a crossing cold front. VFR returns Sunday and Monday
under high pressure, before low pressure returns restriction
potential on Tuesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...WM