913
FXUS65 KPSR 140556
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1056 PM MST Mon May 13 2024

.UPDATE...Updated 06z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain above normal the rest of this week and
into the weekend with the lower deserts close to or just above 100
degrees most days. Dry conditions will persist with the usual
late afternoon breeziness. An exception will be the higher
elevations of northern and eastern Arizona which will see a few
late day showers each day. These showers could be supportive of
some erratic, gusty winds descending into the lower deserts each
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overall tranquil weather will persist across the area the rest of
this week into the weekend. Mainly just some elevated fire
weather concerns with hot temperatures, low humidities and late
day breezy conditions through the forecast period.

Ensembles in overall agreement with weak ridging over the area
today giving way to lowered heights again for Tuesday into
Thursday as another upper low off the SW CA coast moves across the
SW US. Not much weather with this system outside of maintaining
low shower chances across the high country to the north. With
steering flow from the north, some late day outflows could see
there way south into portions of the Phoenix valley with some
erratic winds. This system will keep temperatures in check, but
still hot and into the upper 90s/near 100.

For the weekend, heights again build across the area ahead of
troughiness developing along the west coast into early next week.
Ridge stays fairly flat, so nothing extreme and resulting in
temperatures coming up just a few degrees for the weekend.
Temperatures could be some of the warmest temperatures so far this
season by Saturday. With that said, still mostly minor HeatRisk
expected. As the west coast trough pushes inland into the northern
Rockies early next week, we will have to watch the potential for
a bit more wind across our area for increased fire weather
concerns once we get into Monday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0550Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the TAF
period under FEW-SCT passing high clouds overnight. Confidence is
low in a thin layer of clouds with bases around 12-15 kft
developing overnight tonight. Widely scattered, high-based cu are
expected to develop again over the high terrain features tomorrow.
Wind directions will continue to favor their typical diurnal
patterns. Slightly elevated southwest winds are expected to
persist through the next several hours. Confidence is high that
the typical SE switch will take hold by 08-10Z at KPHX, KDVT, and
KIWA, with lighter wind speeds overnight (aob 8 kt).

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the next
24 hours under passing high clouds. Winds at KIPL will favor a
westerly component through most of the period, and confidence is
good in westerly gusts developing again tomorrow evening and
peaking between 20-25 kt. An extended period of light and variable
winds is likely at KIPL tomorrow afternoon. Winds will generally
prefer S to SW through the period at KBLH, but periods of very
light and variable winds can be anticipated tomorrow morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There will be local elevated fire danger this week and into the
weekend as a result of some periodic gusty winds (mainly in the
afternoon and early evening hours), dry fine fuels, and low
humidity levels. MinRH levels will be around 10% across the lower
deserts and in the teens for the higher terrain areas. Overnight
recoveries will poor to fair and in the 20-50% range. Afternoon
and early evening wind gusts will be in the 20-25 mph range, with
some periodic higher gusts possible in the higher terrain in the
eastern districts due to some high based showers over the
mountains.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frieders
AVIATION...Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Frieders