Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221806
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1206 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly cooler today, but still nice!

- Increasing winds and periods of critical fire weather conditions
  Saturday and Sunday ahead of next approaching weather system.

- Quick moving system expected to bring cooler temperatures and
  rain and snow chances to the area Sunday into Monday, with
  accumulating snowfall expected for most of the high country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Currently...satellite imagery shows what is left of an upper wave
moving across the region with cloud cover decreasing as it pushes
east.  At the surface, a cold front has been tracking south across
the Plains, and will continue ot do so through daybreak.  Winds have
shifted northeast behind the cold front with gusts 20 to 30 mph
range.  Temperatures on the Plains are currently in the lower 40s,
while areas over the San Luis Valley are in the 30s.

Today...the upper system will continue to track eastward this
morning, exiting into Kansas by mid day.  Upper riding will then
move into Colorado by this afternoon.  Flow at the surface will
weaken this morning and swing southeasterly by this afternoon.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler with 50s and lower 60s across
the Plains, and 50s over the San Luis Valley.  No precipitation is
forecast through this afternoon.

Tonight...the upper ridge will continue east across Colorado
overnight, while the next weak upper shortwave begins to move across
Colorado in increasing southwest flow.  Model guidance is developing
light snow showers along the Continental Divide late tonight into
Saturday morning.  Little if any snow accumulations is expected
tonight.  Flow at the surface will shift southwesterly, helping to
keep temperatures warmer overnight.  Lows will be coolest over the
Palmer Divide with 30s, while the rest of the Plains see 40s.
Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Saturday..

Models bring the upper trough onshore over the Pacific Northwest on
Saturday, ushering in southwesterly flow aloft over our region. This
will bring snow chances to Continental Divide as early as Saturday
afternoon. Lee troughing and downsloping winds develop over the
plains, leading to well above normal temperatures and gusty
southwesterly winds for most locations. Highs look to reach well
into the 70s for lower elevations, with gusts to 45 mph possible,
especially over our southern mountains and Baca County. Though gusty
winds will be present across the plains, relative humidity values
will be very borderline for most, especially on our far eastern
plains. Have decided to hold off on any fire weather highlights for
Saturday for now, though we could see very spotty near critical
conditions over eastern Las Animas, Huerfano, southern Pueblo, and
Otero counties. Areas of blowing dust could also be possible on
Saturday, especially over our far southeastern plains, where recent
precip amounts have been a bit less than surrounding areas.

Sunday and Monday..

Ensembles are showing better agreement with the Sunday/Monday storm
progression, and have continued to trend towards a quicker and less
tightly closed low solution. Deterministic model solutions show the
low ejecting in western Kansas by late Sunday afternoon, allowing a
strong cold front to back across our plains throughout the late
afternoon and evening hours. With this current later frontal timing,
critical fire weather is a concern for counties along and south of
highway 50. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday
afternoon for Bent, Prowers, Baca, and eastern Las Animas counties.
If models trend toward earlier frontal timing, fire weather concerns
could end up diminishing, especially for Bent and Prowers counties.
Snow continues to spread eastward across the high country throughout
the day on Sunday, with rain and snow chances pushing into the
Palmer Divide as early as Sunday afternoon, and spreading out over
the lower elevations through the later afternoon and evening hours.
A transition to all snow looks likely by around midnight for most
locations, though snowfall amounts are looking minimal for lower
elevations. Most plains locations are looking at less than two
inches, with mountain locations seeing anywhere from 4 to 12 inches.
Highest totals are expected over the San Juans. Main concern with
snowfall will be for the Monday morning commute, especially over
Teller County and the Palmer Divide. Though the system pushes out
quickly, we remain chilly on Monday with highs topping out in the
40s. Occasional light snow showers along and near the mountains and
lingering cloudiness is expected for Monday.

Tuesday Onwards..

We remain in the backside of the broader trough through mid week,
keeping off and on chances for snow showers over the Continental
Divide through at least Wednesday. Temperatures look to return to
near normal by mid-week, with another trough approaching for the
second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24
hours, with breezy south to southeast winds 10-20kts expected
at the terminals through the aftenroon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ233-235>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...


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