000
FXUS65 KPUB 250448
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1048 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds gusting up to 50 mph combined with hot and very dry
  conditions will produce high fire danger for portions of the
  area Thursday afternoon.

- There is a low risk of strong to severe storms across the far
  eastern plains Thursday.

- Spotty critical fire weather concerns continue into Friday for
  portions of our plains, with rain and snow chances expected
  elsewhere across the forecast area.

- Cooler and wetter weather likely for this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Currently...Upper ridge axis was slowly moving east across CO and
into the central plains today, while the next incoming low pressure
system to affect the region was located just off the CA coast.
Plenty of sun across the forecast area today, and while southerly
surface winds have kept the humidity somewhat elevated across the
plains, higher gusts and more dry air have produced critical fire
weather conditions once again for the San Luis Valley this
afternoon. Temps have warmed into the 60s to around 70F for the high
valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s for the plains, as of 2 PM.

Tonight...Ongoing Red Flag Warning for the San Luis Valley will
expire at 8 Pm, as winds slightly decrease and temps start to cool.
The upper low is forecast to push onshore across southern CA and
into southern NV tonight. This will increase the southerly feed of
more mild and moist air into the eastern plains of CO, so could not
discount the isolated chance of some convection in KS spilling back
across the border into CO. Therefore, kept isolated pops along the
eastern border late tonight with enhanced cloud cover, while the
rest of the forecast area clears out. Plan on overnight lows in the
30s to around 40F for the high valleys, and in the 40s for the
plains. One thing to note: the overnight RH recoveries across the
Sangres and the Wets tonight are forecast to be fairly poor, which
may set the stage for Thu.

Tomorrow...The upper low crosses the Four Corners through midday,
then passes overhead through the late afternoon. The upper jet with
a 110 kt core will carve out the southern end of the trough, with
the leading edge crossing the far southeast corner of the state.
This path brings a wide variety of weather to the region through the
day, starting off with increasing cloudiness and shower activity
along the Continental Divide by around 11 AM. Precipitation and
convective activity will spread across the remaining higher terrain
and then adjacent plains through the afternoon, with the focus on
the mts and the Palmer Divide. The higher terrain of the Continental
Divide may receive up to 2 inches of new snow by the evening.

Meanwhile, strong southwest winds with gusts up to around 50 mph
will develop across the eastern plains. These strong gusts, coupled
with highs in the 70s and 80s with minimum RH levels right around 10
percent, will produce critical fire weather conditions across all of
the eastern plains. Existing Red Flag Warning looks reasonable, and
the excluded areas from the warning are due to the latest fuels
information stating that those fuels are not receptive to carrying
fire.

Finally, there is a low chance of some strong to even severe storms
right along the eastern border of CO. At this time, high res models
are indicating that the stronger storms will occur in KS, but there
is sufficient shear across the eastern plains that if any storms do
develop, they definitely could become strong in a hurry. Stay tuned
for the severe potential through tomorrow morning as things may
change and get fine-tuned.

High temps tomorrow are forecast to climb into the 60s to near 70F
for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains.
Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Thursday Night and Friday..

Models place the surface low northeast of Kiowa County by Thursday
evening, leaving most of our plains in dry southwesterly flow
through the early evening hours. Very light snow showers over the
Continental Divide will begin to come an end through Thursday
evening, with ongoing chances for wrap around showers and weak
thunderstorms across our eastern mountains, the Pikes Peak region,
and our plains, mainly north of highway 50. Though precip chances
sort of persist through the overnight hours into our Friday, we will
see a lull through the morning hours. As we get into the late
morning and early afternoon, showers and thunderstorms redevelop
over the high country and begin to spread into the I-25 corridor.
Depending on timing of any showers that develop, we could see a few
hours of spotty critical fire weather conditions over portions of
the plains as well, especially along and south of highway 50.
Daytime highs will be around 5 degrees cooler for Friday than
tomorrow, with temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to upper 70s
for most of the plains, 60s for mountain valleys, and 40s and 50s
for higher terrain locations. Winds remain gusty, though less strong
than Thursday for most locations. The San Luis Valley will likely
see gusts to 40 mph, with gusts closer to 30 mph expected over most
of our plains.

Saturday and Sunday...

Models bring another upper low towards the Four Corners region
Friday night into Saturday, which will help to keep precip chances
ongoing through the overnight hours and throughout Saturday itself.
Though there is still some disagreement about its overall
progression, the general consensus seems to close it off and bring
it right over us throughout the day on Saturday. This will bode for
our precip chances, and storm total QPF shows anywhere from around
0.10 to 0.85 for most plains and mountain valley locations, with
highest amounts over Teller and El Paso counties. WPC has outlined
both Teller and El Paso for a marginal risk for excessive rainfall,
which seems possible given steepening lapse rates and strong ascent
over the area. Snow totals over the Continental Divide look to push
into the 6 to 10 inch range, with higher amounts possible for some
areas, which could end up warranting some Winter Weather highlights
this weekend as wall. Embedded thunderstorm activity will further
increase precip totals across portions of the plains as well. Severe
storms do not look likely on Saturday, but lapse rates look
supportive of a few stronger storms. Shower and thunderstorm chances
linger into Sunday, though they will decrease in coverage and
intensity. Daytime highs look to top out in the 60s both days.

Monday Onwards..

Mostly zonal flow aloft takes over for the first half our work week,
as a series of lows traverses the northern Rockies. This will mean
near normal temperatures and quiet weather for Monday, with above
normal temperatures and the possible return of critical fire weather
for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be diurnal the rest
of tonight into tomorrow morning, but will pick up from the
south through southwest during the early afternoon becoming
gusty from the west by late afternoon and northwest to north-
northwest at the end of the forecast period. Some mid level
broken clouds will enter the region during the evening hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ224-
225-232-233-237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH/MOORE