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000
FXUS61 KRNK 170024
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
824 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary across the region will be the focus for
showers and thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday. A low pressure
system tracking through the Great Lakes will push a cold front
through the region this weekend. Temperatures will remain above
normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 810 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

  - Isolated storms on Wednesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorm activity from this afternoon
has diminished across the area as the warm front has lifted
northward, and the cold front has dropped to the south, leaving
the area in between the two fronts, per the latest surface
analysis. Mainly mid and high level clouds remain, although
cloud cover will increase tomorrow morning. Only minor
adjustments to PoPs made for this evening update to reflect the
decrease in shower and storm coverage. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track.

Previous discussion below...


As of 110 PM EDT Tuesday...

MSAS Lifted Index analysis showed unstable air west of the
boundary with a tight gradient across the mountains and stable
air over the foothills and piedmont. Latest guidance suggests
the cold front retreats north as a warm front throughout the day
Wednesday.

Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday will
be in the locations that will be in the warm sector.

Surface dew points in the 50s and cloud cover will keep
overnight lows 15 to 25 degrees above normal. Warm temperatures
will continue on Wednesday, especially in the warm sector.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Scattered showers and storms Wednesday night

2: Temperatures well above normal Thursday

An upper level low over the Great Lakes will move north into
Canada through the period. This low will send a surface wave
over the Ohio Valley then along the Mason-Dixon line Wednesday
night. Showers and thunderstorms will stick close to the this
wave and along its out- flow boundary moving east from the
southern Shenadoah Valley into central Virginia Wednesday
evening. Winds become westerly behind this wave and ahead of a
weak cold front entering the mountains after midnight. After
midnight, rain will mainly fall across the mountains, moreso
along western slopes. The front should clear the piedmont early
Thursday morning with weak high pressure moving over the region
in the afternoon. Severe potential should be limited to the
evening hours and along the outflow boundary.

Another surface wave will track across the southern Ohio Valley
then into northern Virginia on Friday. The associated front
with this wave will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area
during the day Friday. Timing has rain moving across the
mountains early in the morning then east of the Blue Ridge
around noon. A second low is expected to form over the Carolinas
Friday afternoon/evening, which will help pull the front across
the area. Some lingering scattered showers are possible in the
afternoon and evening, mainly across the mountains. Current
timing of rain and frontal passage should greatly limit severe
potential Friday.

High temperatures on Thursday will range from the lower 70s to
mid 80s...which is 10F-15F warmer than normal. Cooler
temperatures expected Friday, but will remain slightly warmer
than normal by 5F or so.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Dry and cooler conditions over the weekend

2: Rain may return Monday.

High pressure begins to edge into the region as a low pressure
system and a cold front move off the Carolina coast Saturday
morning. Overcast skies will give way to partly sunny skies in
the afternoon. The next chance for rain maybe Monday as a low
pressure system tracks along the Deep South then off the
Carolina coast.

Temperatures return to normal this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 820 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions are present areawide this evening, as the
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity from this afternoon
has diminished. Mainly mid and high level clouds remain,
although cloud cover will increase Wednesday. Coverage of
showers and thunderstorms increase later on Wednesday as a
front lifts northward through the area, although confidence is
higher for areas west of the Blue Ridge, so have included VCSH
for KLWB and KBLF for now. Conditions will be sub-VFR within
any of the heavier showers on Wednesday.

Winds on Wednesday will turn southwesterly, between 6 to 12
knots. Winds may become gusty during the afternoon for terminals
in the west, up to around 20 knots.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

A low pressure system and stronger cold front approach the area
Wednesday night through Saturday morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with associated MVFR flight conditions, are
expected ahead of this system, especially each afternoon and
evening. Most of the time should be VFR. Could also have some
MVFR to IFR fog at night.

Sunday looks dry and VFR at this time.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/AS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/AS