186
FXUS61 KRNK 071440
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1040 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern will remain unsettled for much of the
week with a daily threat of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms through Thursday. Cooler and drier weather returns
by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1040 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1. Potential thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,

Most of the remaining few morning showers have moved out of the
area at this time. Ample cloud cover persists along and west of
the Blue Ridge, while some larger breaks in the clouds are
present over the Foothills and Piedmont. Expecting a decreasing
trend in cloud cover for the next few hours, before coming back
in with some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Morning
sounding at RNK showed west to northwesterly winds near the
surface and aloft, so confidence is still lower on storm
coverage at this time, with westerly flow limiting storm
potential. No changes made to the forecast for this morning
update, aside from blending in current observations.

Previous discussion below...


As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...

Upper wave responsible for the rain/storms yesterday will move
off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning and weak ridging builds
overhead. Will see an increase in westerly winds behind the
departing wave. Still a bit of uncertainty on storm coverage
today with the upper ridging and westerly flow that will be in
place, which tends to suppress storm development. HRRR, NAM, and
multiple renditions of the WRF all indicate very spotty
coverage today as well. With this is mind, kept the PoPs highest
over the western mountains really decreased chances east of the
mountains. May have late development as the westerly wind
relaxes late this evening, but will begin to lose instability by
that point as we lose daytime heating. However, any storm that
is able to develop will have the potential for damaging winds,
especially with modeled DCAPE over 1000 J/kg by the mid-
afternoon.

Expecting any convection to quickly diminish after sunset and
may have areas of fog develop again tonight. Low a bit warmer in
the mid to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

   - Increasing flash flood threat
   - Periods of numerous showers and thunderstorms

Mid-level troughing deepens on Wednesday ahead of a frontal
passage on Thursday. Both days will feature showers and
thunderstorms across the entire forecast area. Due to the
antecedent conditions and multiple consecutive days of
convective showers and storms, the threat for flash flooding
will increase through the week. High rainfall rates are possible
within any storms that form due to the above normal PWATs. There
is potential for thunderstorms to exhibit severe
characteristics, especially during the peak heating periods of
each afternoon. Greatest threats will be damaging winds or
large hail.


An embedded shortwave rotating through a broader trough will
continue the pattern of thunderstorms and rainshowers on Friday
as well. Temperatures will be around normal or just below thanks
to cloud cover, the cooling effects of showers and storms, and
frontal passage on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

  - Temperatures cool off
  - Daily threat of thunderstorms continues

Overall synoptic scale pattern during this time frame features broad
troughing in the eastern United States and lower 5000 MB heights. No
particular focus to aid in development of precipitation but region
remains cooler than earlier in the week, but warm enough for a daily
chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. For now,
enough of a break from the deep moisture to the forecast for Monday
dry.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Tuesday...

Still a few areas of patchy fog this morning, but lingering
cloud cover has prevented more widespread fog.

Any fog remaining will likely erode by 13z. Ceilings will be
variable through the next couple of hours, but improve to VFR
for much of the area by later this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon,
with the best coverage over the mountains. Therefore, have
introduced a period of thunder for BCB/BLF/LWB for a few hours
this afternoon/evening.

Winds increase from the west today, a bit gusty across the
mountains at times. Possibly gusting to 20kts.

Fog possible again overnight, especially for any areas that may
see rain today.

Forecast confidence is average.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Unsettled weather is expected for much of the week. Daily
threat of SHRA/TSRA through Friday. This will bring periods of
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds through
Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...AS/BMG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...AMS/VFJ
AVIATION...BMG