Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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778 FXUS64 KSHV 291800 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 100 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1046 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Weak upper-level ridging to continue to force any lingering convection east of the region through the afternoon. However, with the onset of daytime heating, could see a few stray showers and thunderstorms developing across portions of northeast Louisiana and south Arkansas this afternoon. High clouds continue to march east, mainly prevailing across Arkansas and Louisiana. However, shallow stratus deck will linger across the entire area through late morning with the expectation that diurnal mixing will help to erode the low cloud deck and allow some sunshine to break through. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s across most areas this afternoon. Current forecast is on track, no update needed at this time. /05/ && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Tornado Watch #160 is valid through 3am for Grant, Winn, LaSalle and Caldwell Parishes in Northeast/North Central Louisiana. Flood Watch is still in effect now until Noon for the southeast half of the Four State Region. Cancelled the northwest half of the Flood Watch with this morning forecast package and it`s possible that the remaining Flood Watch can be cancelled earlier than Noon today across our southeast half. Leading edge of a LEWP was beginning to accelerate south and east through our eastern most zones early this morning and this is where there will continue to be a wind/isolated tornado threat for at least one more hour before these threats shift south and east of our region. Likewise, this will be a continued flood threat through at least the mid morning hours with another inch or two of precipitation possible with lighter amounts further north and west. Will need to watch for some patchy dense fog early this morning across our western half as the clearing line has made it into NC Texas a little faster than progs would indicate, otherwise, look for a short drying trend to commence later today, through tonight and through all but our far southern zones on Tuesday. Introduced small chance pops mainly south of the I-20 Corridor for Tue as there is some indication that a remnant boundary or front will begin returning back northward during the day that could act as a forcing mechanism with daytime heating for at least isolated convection south of the I-20 Corridor. Otherwise, did not stray too far from NBM temps through the short term portion of the forecast. 13 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 The drying trend is short lived unfortunately as more significant rainfall is back in the forecast for later this week. The Southern Plains returns to southwest flow aloft with a developing longwave trough carving its way into the Intermountain West. This flow will only amplify as strong upper ridging remains anchored across the Southeast U.S. and into the Appalachians. Upstream disturbances in this southwest flow aloft will likely provide the upper forcing necessary, combined with plentiful Gulf of Mexico moisture and you have the ingredients for locally heavy rainfall once again. Convection should be isolated to scattered in coverage Wed thru Wed Night with the first impulse likely impacting our region Thu into Thu Night with another close on its heels during the day Friday. NBM is a little drier than one would think with another stronger disturbance moving our way Sat into Sat Night per the GFS but have followed it`s lead for now. Needless to say this late week system has the potential to become another flood maker with severe weather probabilities a little less certain. 13 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 For the ArkLaTex terminals, mid&upper level decks have cleared all but KMLU. The low decks are lifting/scattering for all our TX sites, and likewise into AR/LA this aftn with better warming. Weak surface high in the wake of nocturnal convection is basically from the rain cooled air. No wind flow around an air mass this go around. SFC wind will remain light & var for us with SW flow aloft off the deck and generally W/SW for climb out and FLs. Overnight, wet ground and near calm wind will bring LIFR/IFR mostly for FG/BR, which will improve quicker tmrw w/ better sun. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 84 65 87 68 / 10 0 10 10 MLU 78 64 84 64 / 90 10 10 10 DEQ 82 58 84 61 / 10 0 0 0 TXK 82 61 86 65 / 10 0 0 10 ELD 78 60 85 61 / 50 10 0 10 TYR 83 64 86 69 / 0 0 10 10 GGG 83 63 86 67 / 10 0 10 10 LFK 85 65 86 68 / 10 0 30 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...24