Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 231201
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
701 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

As an upper trough continues to push east of our region early this
morning, we are still dealing with some wrap around low cloud
cover across portions of SC AR and N LA. This moisture is
confined to mainly near and below the boundary layer and wet soils
have resulted in the development of patchy dense fog across these
areas as well. In the wake of the upper trough is a cold front
that continues to make progress into our region from the northwest
and it`s this boundary that should help to scour out the low cloud
cover and fog as we go through the morning. Stayed on the warmer
side of guidance today with the aid of solar radiation with
negligible temperature advection even in the wake of the cold
front which is acting as little more than a wind shift.

Look for increasing mid and high cloud cover from the west by
afternoon and especially overnight tonight and that will cause to
hold temperatures up somewhat as surface ridging quickly exits our
region to the east. This will result in returning southeasterly
winds at the surface across our western half. Low level moisture
return will wait until Sunday in advance of our next upper level
disturbance that will be carving its way across the Intermountain
west. High temperatures on Sun should be similar to those today or
just a little warmer despite the returning southerly flow as mid
and high level cloud cover should help to offset the low level
warm air advection pattern slightly.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Our next big weather maker will begin to make its presence known
as early as late Sunday Night across our far northwest zones as
a lead disturbance in the above mentioned long wave trough ejects
out of the southwest Great Basin and into the Southern Plains. The
severe weather threat should really begin ramping up during the
day Monday into Monday Evening across at least the southern half
of NE TX, all of N LA and into SC AR.

Beginning to become more concerned about a damaging wind and
tornado threat anywhere along and east of a line from the Lower
Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn Country of Deep East Texas into
portions of North Central and Northeast Louisiana as early as late
morning on Monday but especially Mon Aftn into the evng hours.
Storm mode attm appears to be a developing QLCS moving across our
region during the day Monday and thus, the eastern half of our
region will likely become influenced by this activity during peak
heating of the day. The one ingredient for severe weather that has
been lacking lately from day to day progs has been instability
but that ingredient is trying to trend upwards, especially if the
line of convection continues to exhibit trends of slowing down/or
maturing per the latest NAM output. What there is plenty of is
Deep Layer Bulk Shear and low level directional shear by afternoon
and evening, especially near and east of the I-49 Corridor. For
now, SPC continues to advertise a SLGT Risk for severe weather
across this general region but if the above trends continue,
especially when it comes to increasing instability during the day
Monday, I would not be surprised to see an Enhanced Risk out
across at least our eastern third for Monday. In addition to the
severe weather theat, widespread one to two inches rainfall
amounts will likely accompany this next disturbance beginning
late Sunday Night, through the day Monday and into Monday Night
with isolated higher amounts possible across portions of SC AR
into NE LA.

Convection should rapidly exit our region to the east late Monday
Night but the upstream longwave trough will come out in waves,
with the bulk of the trough waiting to come out Wed into Wed
Night. Have introduced slight chances of showers across our
northwest third Wed Aftn and areawide Wed Night per the latest
ECMWF which does support enough forcing for some precipitation
which is in contrast to the drier NBM solution. Upper ridging will
dominate the Southern Plains for Thu into Friday but our region is
right back into southwesterly flow aloft to begin the weekend as
we await out next upstream trough poised to begin influencing our
region just beyond this 7-day forecast cycle.

Thanks for the coordination this morning SPC and JAN. Prelim #s to
follow...13.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, NW sfc winds around 10KT have done
well with eroding the clouds and fog issues overnight. The wind
will increase to near 15KT with daylight and soon veer to N/NE
15-18Z and continue around to E/SE 5KTafter midnight. Fair
weather for a couple of days this weekend with more clouds and
rain for Monday aftn/eve with SVR TS possible & fropa by daybreak
on Tuesday. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  50  72  63 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  66  43  69  59 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  68  43  66  54 /   0   0  10  60
TXK  67  46  68  59 /   0   0  10  40
ELD  65  42  66  56 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  70  53  71  60 /   0   0   0  40
GGG  70  50  71  61 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  73  52  74  63 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...24


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