715
FNUS75 KSLC 191114
FWSSLC

Spot Forecast for Ikes Valley...USFS
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
514 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 MDT on May 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Southwest winds will increase slightly this
afternoon compared to yesterday as the next cold front makes its
way into northern and central Utah. This front will stall over
central Utah this evening. As a result, dry and generally mild
conditions are expected at the burn site today as showers will
remain to the north near the boundary. However, as the parent
storm system carves south into the Great Basin, a reinforcing cold
front will eventually push through the burn site tomorrow during
the late afternoon or early evening hours. Southwest winds will
increase more tomorrow as this front nears with high probability
of gusts greater than 25 mph and potentially greater than 30 mph
(a 40% chance after 1600), before turning northwest behind the
cold front and gradually decreasing. The front will be accompanied
by more noticeable cooling and increased moisture. The initial
round of showers tomorrow afternoon will be fairly isolated, and
will have a potential for microburst winds up to 40 mph.
Thereafter, as the airmass moistens, measurable rain chances
increase to 30%, along with a 15% chance of wetting rain, tomorrow
evening. A small chance of showers continue into Tuesday, with a
possibility for snow to mix in with rain. At this time, not
expecting more than a trace of snow accumulation. Conditions trend
warmer and drier for Wednesday. For the rest of the week, there
is more uncertainty in the forecast for southern Utah, but another
round of gusty southwest winds will be possible on Wednesday.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (5-15 percent cloud cover).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....67-70.
Min humidity........14-17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 3-7 mph increasing to
                    5-10 mph with gusts to 18 mph after 0900,
                    then increasing to 8-14 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph after noon.
Clearing index......1000+.
Haines Index........5.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent cloud cover).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....41-44.
Max humidity........43-46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6-12 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph becoming south 3-7 mph after
                    2200, then becoming southwest 4-8 mph after
                    0200.
Haines Index........4.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent cloud cover).
                    Slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....63-66.
Min humidity........17-20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 4-8 mph increasing to 6-12 mph
                    with gusts to 22 mph after 0900, then
                    increasing to 11-18 mph with gusts to around
                    30 mph after noon.
Clearing index......1000+.
Haines Index........4.

$$
Forecaster...Cheng
Requested by...Bode Mecham
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414630.0/SLC
.DELDT 05/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bode.mecham@usda.gov