Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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677 FXUS62 KTBW 091856 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 256 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 The big story today will once again be the heat. Highs in the interior will once again be near records in the mid to upper 90`s. A squall line currently in Middle Georgia is expected to continue to head southeast into North Florida. This line could clip parts of Levy County this evening where a stray strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. As we go into our Friday the cold front that is currently starting to push into the southeast will start to head our way. The front itself will be weakening as it heads towards us. This means the showers and storms that is associated with it will also be weakening. However we can not rule out a stronger storm or two north of I-4 in the late afternoon and evening hours. By the time the line reaches Tampa most of the shower activity will be gone and shower activity will be very limited south of I-4. The front will dry us out for our weekend. Since it is May in Florida we won`t be see to much cold air with it, but we will have one pleasant morning in the 60`s on Sunday before we quickly warm up around 90 degrees in the afternoon. Starting next week moisture will quickly return resulting in some isolated seabreeze thunderstorms on Monday. Our next system will be heading our way on Tuesday and Wednesday which should increase shower chances. Models are still a little all over the place with timing and exactly how much rain we can expect. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions expected through the daytime hours. However, MVFR and IFR CIGS will be possible overnight as models are showing a lower cloud deck. Winds will start to increase late in the TAF period in response to a cold front that will be heading out way. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Wind will continue to be out of the southern direction for the rest of our work week and generally below 15 knots. A front will come through late in the day on Friday which could produce a few showers in our northern waters. After that winds will shift northwest on Saturday and then Northeast on Sunday but once again should stay below 15 knots. By Monday winds go back southeast and we will be expecting some seabreeze thunderstorms in the afternoon that could drift towards the coast into the evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 After seeing some spotty critical RHs yesterday and today across the interior we will see a little bit more moisture tomorrow along with the shower chances north of I-4. However a frontal system will push through late Friday which will drop RHs even more. Saturday critical RHs look to stay in the interior but the whole west coast of FLorida should expected critical RHs with some spots getting into the 20`s on Sunday. Moisture will quickly return into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 88 77 88 / 0 20 30 10 FMY 75 92 77 90 / 0 0 20 30 GIF 75 92 74 92 / 0 10 30 10 SRQ 77 88 76 89 / 0 10 30 10 BKV 71 89 69 89 / 0 30 30 10 SPG 78 86 79 86 / 0 20 40 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard