Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 281937
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
237 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild weather, with highs in the 60s and 70s through early next
  week.

- Our best rain chances of 30 to 40 percent arrive Sunday night
  into Monday. There may be a few thunderstorms as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A nice warm-up has taken place across the area this afternoon as
sunny skies and efficient BL mixing have pushed temperatures into
the mid-60s area wide. Expect temperatures to warm a few degrees
further over the next few hours. Windy conditions will be the main
forecast point over the next 30 hours with winds this afternoon
gusting up to 25-30 mph. Paired with the winds, afternoon RH values
will drop around 30% area-wide today and tomorrow and could create
some elevated fire weather conditions. See the Fire Weather Section
below for further information. Winds will weaken a bit as we get
into the evening and overnight hours, keeping temperatures mild,
only dropping into the low 50s and upper 40s.

By Friday, an upper level shortwave moving across the northern
Plains will continue to deepen a surface cyclone over southwest
Kansas, keeping pressure gradients tight over much of the state.
Strong southwesterly winds will quickly develop Friday morning and
continue for much of the afternoon, especially in eastern Kansas.
Model soundings across east-central Kansas depict efficient and deep
BL mixing in the afternoon with gusts pushing 45 mph at times. Have
issued a Wind Advisory for Coffey and Anderson counties to account
for an increase in confidence for winds exceeding advisory
thresholds. For areas north and west, pressure gradients will weaken
a bit as the afternoon progresses with a surface trough slowly
veering winds out of the northwest. As the main trough and surface
low advect into far eastern Kansas, a brief shower/weak storm could
pop up given enough surface convergence along the surface boundary.
Better chances for precipitation will be off to our east where
forcing and moisture will be more pronounced. Have maintained slight
PoPs to account for this Friday evening.

Above-average temperatures will continue into the weekend as a
longwave trough begins to dig out of the western US and deepen
another lee-cyclone in southeast Colorado. Ascent increases ahead of
the trough combined with surface convergence ahead of a surface
front, and isentropic lift northwest of the surface front, shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase Monday into Tuesday. Models
are still not in line with one another on the timing and positioning
of the system with the Euro and CMC faster and the GFS slower.
Regardless, this system could potentially produce widespread
chances for rain and storms across the region, with much of
northeast Kansas maintaining 30-40% PoPs through Tuesday. Stay tuned
for further updates. Cooler but closer to average temperatures
filter in behind the system by Tuesday and Wednesday with high temps
topping out in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR TAFs can be expected to continue through the period at all
sites with winds being the main aviation hazard. Gusty southwest
winds will be present this afternoon, gusting to around 25 mph.
Winds will weaken as the BL decouples this evening before LLWS
becomes an issue around midnight through the morning hours of
Friday. WS could exist longer than what the TAF depicts, but
confidence was not high enough to extend LLWS through the end of
the period as strong, gusty winds increase again Friday
afternoon. Winds will begin to increase mid to late Friday
morning, gusting upwards of 35 mph, especially at KTOP and
KFOE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Windy conditions will exist this afternoon and Friday afternoon
with southwesterly winds gusting upwards of 25 mph today. Winds
decrease overnight tonight before increasing again Friday
morning. Expect winds tomorrow to be a bit gustier, especially
in east-central Kansas where gusts could range between 35-45
mph. With RH values dropping between 25-30% in the afternoon,
this could create elevated fire danger across the area,
especially with winds promoting erratic fire behavior. Closer
to north-central Kansas, winds will weaken and veer towards the
northwest into the afternoon hours as a surface trough passes
over the area. RH values within the surface trough axis could
briefly drop below 25%, but with winds weakening, this should
not lead to too many concerns.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer
FIRE WEATHER...Griesemer


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