721
FXUS64 KTSA 271536
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1036 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong to severe storms already have developed to the west within
a corridor of strong instability. Coverage is expected to increase
some during the afternoon across eastern Oklahoma, with an uptick
in severe potential by mid to late afternoon where all modes of
severe will be possible. The higher PoPs this afternoon look good.
Latest cloud cover trends continue to support a mostly cloudy
sky, therefore forecast afternoon max temps will be left as they
are. Remaining first period elements are in line, and the current
flood watch will be left as is.

No update planned at this time.





&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Heavy rainfall will gradually shift eastwards overnight and finally
move out of the area later on Sunday. Storm totals should exceed 1"
in all locations, with many areas seeing 2 to locally 4+ inch
totals. Such heavy rainfall will result in localized flash flooding
and river flooding in spots. A Flood Watch is in effect on account
of this threat.

After Sunday, a few lingering storms could still pop up Monday or
Tuesday, but conditions will be mostly quiet with highs in the upper
70s to mid 80s. Another weather system will impact the area
Wednesday and Thursday resulting in some cooling and a return of
showers and thunderstorms. Some severe weather may also occur during
this period, though the potential is expected to be much lower than
what we will be dealing with today.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The morning should be quiet at all sites with MVFR cigs and LLWS
conditions. By early afternoon, CAMs indicate potential for pop-up
showers and storms from KMLC over into the W AR TAFs. Meanwhile,
storm development gets going to the west btwn 18Z and 21Z, with at
least sct storms near the NE OK sites btwn 21Z and 00Z. A larger
complex organizes this evening and then sweeps east overnight.
Inserted gusty wind potential at most sites (except NE OK) with
the squall line with impacts into NW AR ongoing at the end of this
forecast. MVFR cigs initially this morning will become VFR by
midday, potentially dipping to MVFR with any storm activity. MVFR
cigs return to some eastern sites by 12Z Sunday morning.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  78  58 /  70 100  70  10
FSM   81  67  76  62 /  80  70 100  40
MLC   81  64  77  60 /  70  90  90  10
BVO   80  60  78  52 /  70  80  60  10
FYV   78  63  73  57 /  70  80 100  40
BYV   78  63  72  58 /  60  60  90  50
MKO   80  62  76  58 /  60  90  90  10
MIO   80  61  74  56 /  50  90  90  20
F10   79  62  77  58 /  70 100  70  10
HHW   80  64  75  61 /  80  80 100  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday
     afternoon for OKZ054>068-070-071-073.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30