306
FXUS64 KTSA 061120
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
620 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY....

Latest data continue to support the likelihood for significant
severe weather across portions of eastern OK today. It is a day to
remain weather aware and have trusted weather sources for your
information.

Amplified trough is currently aligned through the Intermountain
West while rapid moisture return is underway downstream across the
southern Plains. 00z upper air data sampled extremes within both
the wind field associated with the trough and the source region of
moisture return. Additionally, low level vapor imagery reveal the
EML spreading east across the west TX and quickly replacing the
more lackluster lapse rates downstream. The combination will yield
a rapid expansion of instability across the warm sector by early
afternoon while wind fields aloft steadily strengthen through the
day. A complicating and more uncertain feature is the weak warm
front aligned along the Red River valley its evolution through the
day. A typical model bias across the local region is to suggest
early day convection within these recovering airmass patterns,
however today may be a more valid scenario. Any early afternoon
storms will pose a severe risk and, should the coverage exceed
forecasts, then a longer lived severe weather window will be
realized.

A much more certain storm evolution will be severe storms quickly
developing across western OK by mid afternoon and spreading
eastward through the evening and overnight hours. Deep layer shear
orientation will favor cellular storms with the initial
development and this more favorable orientation holds true through
the overnight hours with southward extent. Further north a trend
toward broken line segments appears probable by mid to late
evening. This transition and varying storm mode appears likely to
felt largely across the local forecast area impacting predominant
hazards and warning configurations. Short term CAM ensemble
guidance have good agreement on a notable strengthening of the low
to mid level wind fields between 00z-06z firmly across the
forecast area and, while the exact impacts are unknown, the
likelihood for significant severe weather is expected to accompany
this evolution. The southern extent of the severe storm coverage
will be limited by the residual capping inversion in wake of the
lifting upper wave. However, several CAM members show long track
UH swaths on the southern periphery of the convection. Any
established strong supercell will continue well into an otherwise
strongly capped airmass and this scenario appears valid today
given shear vector orientation. The risk of severe weather will
continue through northwest Arkansas late tonight and significant
severe potential may expand that far east though uncertainty is
higher at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A brief lull in severe weather will occur Tuesday, however airmass
recovery will be well underway ahead of the next upper wave and
associated cold front. Intense low level jet develops Tuesday
night with associated warm moist advection potentially igniting storms
by early Wed morning across NE OK / NW AR. Should morning storms
develop then a quick transition toward severe weather is likely
given forecast soundings. Otherwise, the focus will be along the
advancing cold front and early day convection appears likely as
minimal capping is expected ahead of the front. While low level
flow is more veered than the Monday event, the presence of strong
instability and ample shear suggest higher end severe weather is
likely. The focus for storms will steadily spread east of the
forecast area by mid to late afternoon.

And then a more prolonged break in the active pattern arrives.
Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected for late week
into the weekend with the next chance of precip early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Vsbys/cigs reduced to brief periods of IFR/VLIFR with in fog
early in the valid period. VFR vsbys expected after 14z, and cigs
will rise to VFR categories by early afternoon. Storms will impact
the NE OK sites this evening with a period of IFR vsbys and MVFR
cigs in +TSRA in the 02z-06z time frame. VFR elements are expected
to prevail at those sites after 06z. Further south and east,
timing and duration of convection is a bit more uncertain. Will
include a prob30 group at KMLC from 04-09z, and tempo groups at
the NW AR sites from 04z-08z(05z-09z KFSM), with MVFR cigs to
prevail through the remainder of the period at all AR sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  60  84  63 /  20  80   0  20
FSM   82  68  87  65 /  20  80   0  10
MLC   81  65  86  66 /  20  50   0  10
BVO   79  54  83  57 /  20  90   0  20
FYV   80  63  82  62 /  20  80  10  20
BYV   80  63  82  62 /  20  80  10  20
MKO   80  62  83  63 /  20  70   0  10
MIO   80  59  81  60 /  20  90   0  20
F10   80  60  84  64 /  20  70   0  10
HHW   81  68  85  68 /  20  40   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for OKZ049-053-
     055>058-060>063-066>076.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-
     010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...23