Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 230531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
131 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Issued at 1015 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Strong surface ridging...subsidence and dry air thru the column
remain the rule across the Great Lakes region late this evening
with strong high pressure centered well north into Canada. Skies
remain clear across much of our CWA...except for a brief patch of
low clouds that develop between CVX and GLR which has since
dissipated. Some low clouds are rotating southward out of Ontario
toward NE sections of our CWA as expected associated with a weak
moisture-starved wave. Expect these clouds will expand southward
into these areas overnight into Friday as the wave moves thru the
region. Otherwise...expect another cold night across the
Northwoods as overnight lows fall into the teens across most of
our CWA.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...Quiet weather continues...

High Impact Weather Potential... None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast... Dry northwesterly winds continue as a
large area of high pressure continues to dominate northern
Michigan`s weather. An upper level low over southeastern Ontario and
associated moisture will move southeastward tonight through the
early morning hours of Friday before high pressure and much drier
air builds back into the Great Lakes region throughout the day

Primary Forecast Concerns... Clouds and temperatures will be the
only concern tonight. Models are differing in cloud cover tonight
with aforementioned upper low and attendant moisture. Will go with
the majority of the models and current observations upstream and
continue with current forecast to clip eastern upper and northeast
lower during the overnight/early morning hours. If cloud cover
becomes more widespread as anticipated then the forecast low
temperatures will definitely have to be adjusted by several degrees.
Low temperatures will be in the teens, while highs Friday will be
almost exactly the same as this afternoon... reaching into the mid
30s to low 40s. Winds will stay out of the north-northwest
throughout the forecast period.


.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...Quiet weather this weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Primary driver to northern Michigan`s sensible
weather will be strong/expansive surface high pressure drifting
across southern Canada into the far northern tier of the CONUS into
the start of next week. Only feature to note will be a potent
shortwave set to dive from the northern plains through the upper
Mississippi Valley Friday night into Saturday with the only
challenge locally perhaps being a slight uptick in cloud cover
across far southern parts of the forecast area.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Cloud cover/temps trends.

Quiet weather is anticipated through the forecast period as
aforementioned high pressure drifts across the region through early
next week. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected to prevail with
high temperatures continuing to be a few degrees below late-March
normals. High temps Saturday ranging from near freezing across
eastern upper to the upper 30s south of M-72. Tack on a few degrees
area-wide Sunday with many locations along and south of M-72 topping
40 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Primary issue for the extended period is a system moving through the
region in the first part of next week. Tuesday looks to be the best
chance for precipitation right now, with some slower guidance
resulting in blended PoPs getting strung out a bit into Wednesday.
Temperatures will run above normal heading through mid-week, though
overnight temps could get cool enough to see some snow mix in.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A disturbance aloft with some higher level cloud will exit the
region this morning. An associated moisture-starved sfc trough/cold
front will lay out over nrn Michigan this morning. There is a small
chance for some MVFR lake cloud around APN due to shallow overlake
instability. There will be a similar set up for late Friday night
into Saturday morning. Odds are that the air mass will be too dry
for this lake induced cloud. Northerly winds generally at or below
10kts through the period.


Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Winds will remain below headline criteria through Saturday morning.
Smallcraft criteria may be realized Saturday night and Sunday as the
pressure gradients begin to tighten ahead of the next approaching
storm system. Rain will begin Monday night and last through
Wednesday morning. This rain my mix with or change completely over
to snow during the overnight hours.




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