Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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695
FXUS61 KCAR 241036
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
636 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will move south of New England
this afternoon.  A warm front will lift north across the area
tonight and stall out around the Saint John Valley Friday. A
cold front will cross the region Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 am Update...
Temperatures updated for current conditions and trends, and sky
grids tweaked a bit. But cloud cover is still expected to
dissipate over the next few hours. No major changes this update.

Original Discussion...
Cloud cover has been a challenge tonight, with a vort max
passing over the area bringing a bit more cloud cover than
originally expected. However, it did hold off some in the areas
with the frost advisory, so temps were able to drop to/below 36F
in those areas for quite a while tonight. As high pressure
slides across the area during the morning, skies should quickly
clear, though highs will likely only be near or a bit lower than
normal. Clouds will increase again in the afternoon as a warm
approaches from Quebec. This front will move across the state
tonight, bringing a chance of showers mainly to northern
Aroostook County. With the breezy conditions, cloud cover, and
passage of the warm front tonight, it will remain a good deal
milder tonight compared to Wed night, especially up north where
lows could be a good 15F or more higher tonight.

Relative humidity values below 35 percent and increasing W`ly
winds could create some minor fire weather concerns over central
and northern areas this afternoon, but given that we are fairly
well along on our green-up and wind gusts should remain below
20mph for the most part, no heads-up SPS or other fire weather
products are planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm front will lift into far northern Maine and stall out
somewhere near the Saint John Valley Friday. To the south of
the front, the air mass will be very warm with 925H temperatures
expected to peak around +22-23C Downeast. The combination of the
warm air mass, a west downsloping wind, and some sunshine
should yield highs in the upper 80s; and perhaps a couple of
spots may hit 90 degrees. There is high confidence that the
warm temps in the 80s soar north into the Katahdin Region. Where
there is still a high degree of uncertainty is in the far north
where the air mass is not as warm, and with the frontal
boundary around there will likely be a lot of clouds and some
showers. This could limit highs to the 60s in parts of the
Saint John Valley. Of course, if the front ends up just 50 miles
further north temps would be much warmer. Made some tweaks to
raise highs a bit more interior Downeast to Millinocket and
lowered a bit in the far north and showed a bit more of a
gradient. The other concern for Friday will be the potential for
afternoon convection in the warm air mass. There is decent
instability and speed shear, and a few t-storms in the
afternoon and evening could become quite strong. Will add gusty
wind and small hail for now and later shifts may need to enhance
further. The SPC now has the area from Greenville to Topsfield
north in a marginal risk with hail and wind the main concerns.
Low pressure pulls to the east of the area Friday night pushing
a cold front south across the region with showers and scattered
evening t-storms. Much cooler and drier in the wake of the front
Saturday with sunshine in the north and clouds and an early
shower toward the coast giving way to at least a p/sunny sky by
afternoon. Highs Saturday will be in the mid to upper 60s north
to the low 70s in the Greater Bangor Region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Decent weather expected across the north as high pressure in
northern Quebec slides off into the maritimes Sun night.  A frontal
boundary will remain stalled to the south of the area with more
clouds toward the coast and a few showers are possible toward Monday
as the flow becomes more onshore and moisture from the Great Lakes
and Middle Atlantic lifts into the area.  Temperatures Sun and Mon
will be much cooler along the coast, with stronger onshore flow by
Monday it will likely cause the cooler temperatures across the
Downeast region.  The mildest temps both days are expected to be
across the far north.  A cold front is expected to cross the region
Tuesday with showers and the chance of a thunderstorm, although
held off on the mention of any thunder for now due to it being
many days out with the usual timing differences and uncertainty
on the stability.  Drier and warmer weather to follow for the
middle of the week with the potential for some very warm/hot
weather by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Any lingering fog at KPQI should dissipate this
morning, with no other lower flight category issues being
reported at TAF sites. Flight conditions should remain VFR
through tonight, with shower activity for KPQI through KFVE
overnight expected to cause few issues.


SHORT TERM: VFR most of the time Fri through Mon. Local MVFR
Fri in the far north at KFVE in clouds and some showers.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms Fri afternoon and evening
will produce gusty and erratic wind at times. Wind gusts outside
of thunderstorms of 25 knots are possible Friday afternoon from
KHUL south. Conditions may lower to IFR late Sun night into Mon
morning near the coast in potential low clouds and fog.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NE-E`ly winds will diminish this morning as high
pressure slides over the waters, then shift onshore and freshen
this afternoon and overnight. Wind gusts overnight may approach
25kts at times, and seas are forecast to build to 6ft or more
for the offshore waters after midnight. Thus a Small Craft
Advisory has been issued starting at 2am Fri, and persisting
into the short-term period.

SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory has been issued through
Friday evening. There is the potential for low visibility by
later Sun night into Monday in areas of fog.

&&

.CLIMATE...
There have been 13 nights with a low < = 32F at Houlton, Maine
so far this May. This is the most during the month of May since
1977.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MEZ002-005-006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to midnight EDT Friday
     night for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Kredensor
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Kredensor/CB
Marine...Kredensor/CB
Climate...



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