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000
FXUS63 KDDC 201600
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering rain chances (20-30%) continue through mid-day.

- Elevated to near-critical fire risk expected Monday.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

WV imagery indicates a zonal flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of an upper level shortwave trough
pushing slowly east through southern California. Near the surface,
high pressure is sliding southeast across the high plains of eastern
Wyoming and western Nebraska.

Based on radar trends/CAMs, rain chances (20-30%) will linger
through at least mid-day as a series of H5 vort maxima continue to
kick out of the Colorado Rockies and through the high plains of
western Kansas. With sufficient mid/upper level moisture available
combined with the help of increased lift from an easterly upslope
flow, periods of light rain can be expected into early afternoon
before slowly dissipating through Saturday evening/night. As of
now, the HREF only shows a meager 10-30% probability of 6-hr QPF
exceeding 0.1 of an inch by early afternoon. Below normal temperatures
are forecast today as surface high pressure slides southeast through
the Western High Plains, reinforcing a colder air mass across the
region with H85 temperatures holding below 5C. Under increased cloud
cover, the HREF paints a 60-80% probability of temperatures exceeding
45F in west central Kansas to the same probability of highs topping
50F in south central Kansas. Expect lows tonight generally down into
the 30s(F) with the HREF indicating a 30-40% probability of temperatures
dropping below freezing in west central Kansas, yet staying above
freezing in south central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Drier conditions are expected early in the period as medium range
ensembles point to an upper level trough swinging southeast through
the Central Plains Sunday, giving way to a more westerly flow aloft
across the region Monday while much drier air in the lower/mid levels
dominates the high plains of western Kansas. There is an outside
chance (20-30%) for rain across portions of central Kansas Monday
night as ensembles show an upper level trough dipping through the
Dakotas, ushering an attendant cold front into northern Kansas
sometime late Monday/early Tuesday. However, available moisture
looks to be limited, possibly accounting for the lower precip
chances. This is supported by the NBM 4.1 painting as little as
a 10% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch around
the I-70 corridor by early Tuesday morning.

A warming trend will ensue Sunday as a surface high begins to depart
eastward out of the Western High Plains, returning southerlies to
western Kansas late in the day, and helping push H85 temperatures
well above 5C in central Kansas to a little above 10C in far southwest
Kansas. With the NBM 4.1 indicating a 40-60% probability of temperatures
exceeding 60F, look for widespread afternoon highs in the lower/mid
60s(F). The warming trend culminates with well above normal temperatures
Monday with prevailing southerlies enhancing warm air advection into
western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures above 15C in central Kansas
to near 25C in extreme southwest Kansas. The NBM 4.1 paints a 50-70%
probability of temperatures climbing above 75F in central Kansas
with greater than 90% of highs exceeding 80F in extreme southwest
Kansas. A cold frontal passage projected by early Tuesday will drop
temperatures closer to seasonal levels Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Cigs range from IFR to VFR this morning. A weather disturbance moving
through has brought these cigs and areas of light rain and even snow
with it. This will continue for the next few hours. A moist upslope
NE flow pattern will continue. This will keep MVFR to low VFR cigs
in the TAFs through much of the period. Winds will continue NE 10-20
kt today and become southerly 5-15 kt tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Surface high pressure will depart eastward through the Central
Plains Monday while lee side troughing develops in eastern
Colorado, resulting in southerly winds strengthening throughout
the day. Meanwhile, drier air spreading into southwest Kansas
will lend to lowering relative humidity levels. As a result,
elevated to near-critical fire conditions are expected for
southwest Kansas and a portion of central Kansas Monday
afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...JJohnson