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000
FXUS63 KDLH 251124
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
624 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather today with some increased winds out of the
  south. Dry in a few portions across northern MN and NW WI
  with Min Rhs falling to near 25% this afternoon.

- Active weather pattern picks up tomorrow and carries us into
  next week. Two low pressure systems will bring widespread
  rain showers and some thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Current conditions/Today:

The Northland finds itself caught between the exiting high pressure
over the Great Lakes and the encroaching Colorado Low this morning.
This will lead to predominately southerly flow streaming across the
region with gusts around 25 mph. Warm air advection will promote
temperatures rising into the 60s. We could still see some dry spots
with Min RHs in the mid 20s across far northern MN and NW WI.

Colorado Low Friday - Saturday:

The aforementioned Colorado Low begins its approach on Friday with
winds turning to out of the east and increasing to gusts around 30
mph. Both the GEFS and Euro Low tracks remain consistent with the
low sliding through southern MN and towards the great Lakes on a
northeast trajectory. Onset times have wavered a bit between
forecast packages with this one blending in some high res guidance
for a delayed approach. Likely from having to overcome some dry air
in the mid levels. Rain showers will become more widespread as we
head into Friday evening. Some embedded thunderstorms remain
possible as low instability can still be found aloft. While the
Northland remains on the northern periphery of the storm for much of
Friday and Friday night the warm sector does look to cross into NW
WI Saturday morning which given some higher bulk shear values we
could see some stronger storms develop briefly. The better dynamics
still remain to our south. SPC does have a marginal risk out just
barely clipping our eastern counties in WI.

Next Low Pressure Sunday - Monday:

A brief lull in the action Sunday morning before another low
pressure treks out of the Plains and northeast towards the Great
Lakes region. Cluster analysis remains in good agreement with high
confidence of swinging an upper level trough through the area
supporting this low. The low tracks however still have quite the
spread to them spanning low centers from eastern ND to western
portions of the UP. Surprisingly, the 00Z suite of deterministic
guidance is in good agreement with taking the track south of Duluth
and through NW WI. This would once again bring the warm sector
through NW WI and could induce some stronger storms. But given the
large spread in low tracks we have low confidence in where
thunderstorms will be able to set up. Regardless of the track, rain
showers will inundated the region once again with the system exiting
Monday afternoon.

Rain Totals:

WPC does have our area highlighted in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall given our active pattern. A strong low level jet of 40-50
kts will set up a gulf connection beginning Friday. Our PW values
remain above the 90th percentile through the weekend. Current
guidance suggests an 1-1.5 inches of rain will be possible across
the region with the heaviest rain falling Friday night. Areas that
see embedded thunderstorms will have increased rain totals.

Extended Forecast:

The pattern remain active through next week as additional shortwaves
move through the region carrying PoPs of 20-40% into the end of the
week. We will also see a warming trend with highs ascending into the
upper 60s and low 70s,

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions throughout the forecast. Satellite and radar this
morning shows a line of showers moving into western MN. Some of the
high res guidance is bringing this line into INL this afternoon but
with the amount of dry air in place it will likely lead to some
virga and sprinkles. Mostly sunny skies for the rest of the region
today with southerly winds streaming across the region. Overnight,
low level wind shear will become a factor as a Colorado Low begins
to encroach on the Northland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Northeasterly winds today around 10-15 kts and a few gusts to around
20 kts in the afternoon. An active pattern to end the week and take
us into early next week will see winds increasing on Friday. A
prolonged period of strong winds hazardous to small vessels is
expected through the weekend. A few gales will be possible on Sunday
as well. Additionally, rain showers and some embedded thunderstorms
will spread across the Lake Friday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt