Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 291211
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
711 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm and windy today which will bring some elevated fire
  concerns.

* Thunderstorm chances increase for Sunday Night through Monday
  with an increasing severe threat Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Water vapor satellite loop as well as mid and upper level analysis
shows a number of small disturbances moving through a broader "dirty
flow" pattern.  Surface analysis at 05z shows a lee trough in place
with a moderate pressure gradient east across the Plains.

Today`s concerns are two fold, winds across the region and how much
of a driver that will be for fire behavior concerns today.
BUFKIT data showing that the most significant wind will be
confined to areas along and east of the Flint Hills. KCNU
transport wind suggests winds of 45-50 mph today. These winds
will also result in an elevated fire behavior risk. Wind
advisory looks in good shape.

A weak upper level disturbance will move through the northern
Plains late today. This will have enough of a surface
reflection to push a cold front south through the area Friday
night.

This will be temporary however, as a more pronounced upper level
trough digs into the west over the eastern Pacific.  This will cause
downstream ridging over the region and will also result in more lee
cyclogenesis Sunday, pushing the front back north.  Sunday night,
the front is expected to be north of the forecast area.  Strong
moisture transport in the lower levels will cause support late day
and prevalent nocturnal convection Sunday evening and night along
and north of the front.  Confidence in the location of the
convection is rather low at this time and will need more evaluation
as the event nears.

A more prominent threat is the convection possible Monday afternoon
and evening.  The upper trough and associated significant PV
perturbation will exit the western U.S. Monday. As this occurs,
low pressure over the High Plains will move east. The is not a
great deal of model consistency in the detailed location of the
low. This has brought confidence in convection and severe
weather for the area quite low. If it were to hang back and
exit during the heating of the day, there should be worthy
shear/buoyancy combinations to produce severe weather. At this
time, we will have to wait and see.

The 5 day mean 500 mb pattern shows an evolving longwave trough that
looks to evolve over the western US, with fast flow upstream over
the northern Pacific and Aleutian Chain. Fast flow regimes like
the said one typically does not support a meridional flow
regime downstream, which the developing troughing over the
western US would suggest. Nonetheless, what this does suggest
with some confidence is a more active pattern ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Concerns:

1) Low level wind shear
2) Gusty winds in SC & SE KS
3) Cold front this evening-tonight

A stronger low level jet will bring low level wind shear
potential this morning for all but RSL and GBD until about 15Z.
Southerly winds are expected to increase across south central
and southeast Kansas around that time (15Z) as a low pressure
system comes further off of the Front Range with sustained
speeds around 20-25kts and potential gusts near 40kts especially
for KCNU. A cold front will move through this evening and
tonight to switch the winds to the northerly direction. There
could be another round of low level wind shear for KCNU with the
increasing low level jet. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail for this period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

The wind across eastern Kansas (gusts from 45-50 mph possible) from
the Flint Hills east will result in elevated fire behavior today.
And while the GFDI is presenting high to very high values, the RFTI
and Burning Index are rather muted.  ERCs are just not really there
give the GSI shows that green-up is well under way.

All this to say, for today, something to watch for recent burning of
burn piles and such for re-ignition is probably the biggest
area of concern.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRC
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...KRC


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