Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 231807 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
107 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Updated for 18Z aviation discussion


18Z TAF discussion:
Overall VFR conditions are expected through this afternoon and
most of the forecast period. Some gusty winds are ongoing, up to
15-20mph, in most areas, but especially the Delta (GLH & GWO).
Expect these winds to wind down somewhat after 24/00Z but should
remain near 8-10kts through the overnight hours before southerly
winds may pick back up late tonight. Overall some mid-high layer
clouds will prevail this afternoon before some low-mid layer
clouds, possibly MVFR ceilings, after 24/08-12Z. The lower MVFR
ceiling in the west will be on the early side (GLH, GWO, JAN &
HKS) while later at eastern TAF sites (GTR, MEI & HBG). Due to
lighter winds at HBG, can`t rule out some patchy MVFR visibilities
near daybreak, but with increasing clouds and wind that should
lift by mid-morning ~24/14Z. Some light showers will move into
northern TAF sites by mid-afternoon tomorrow but not enough
confidence exists to introduce in the TAFs at the moment. /DC/


Overall a continued quiet & dry forecast is in store today.
As a a shortwave and surface low/stalled frontal boundary push
through Missouri and into the mid-Mississippi Valley, expect
gradual increase in pressure gradient from the west. The very
light rain showers have tapered off just to our north & any
chances will stay to our north into the mid-South area. This will
help winds gust in the 15-20mph range or so, especially in the
Delta. Otherwise, with increasing warmth in the low-levels and
slow increase in mid-high level moisture, expect above normal
highs in the mid-upper 70s with increasing mid-high level clouds.
With some drier dewpoints around & increasing pressure
gradient/winds, we should mix well. However, lowered highs as even
efficient mixing won`t support too far into the upper 70s. Even
with gusty winds and dry air around, think any fire danger will
be very limited & not enough to mention in the HWO/graphics. /DC/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight:

Surface high pressure ridging will continue to move east of the
area today with southerly flow increasing. A nice day is on tap
with partly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the mid/upper
70s. The surface pressure gradient will begin to increase this
afternoon with gusts from 20 to 25 mph possible, especially across
the delta.

A weak short wave will move across the northern portions of the
area early on Saturday, and this may kick off a few light showers
in the morning. Overnight lows will fall into the mid/upper

Saturday through Thursday night:

Models remain in good agreement that a shortwave and attendant
surface low over the Central Plains Saturday morning will continue
weaken through the day as they track east across the Tennessee
valley. The pressure gradient between the low and a surface ridge
across the northern Gulf will result in a gusty south wind that will
increase surface dew points back into the 60s and PWATs from near
one inch to near an inch and a half during the afternoon. Daytime
heating will lead to a few storms developing primarily north of
Interstate 20. Warmer than normal temperatures are also expected as
the southern half of the CWA tops out in the lower 80s. As the
shortwave and surface low all but dissipate Saturday night, the
trailing cold front will sag into our CWA and stall. The front is
expected to stall near the Interstate 20 corridor. The front will
remain the focus for convection through Sunday before lifting back
north late Sunday night into Monday morning. Coolest temperatures
and greatest rain chances Saturday through Monday will be carried
across the northern half of our CWA. Our southern half will remain
warmer than normal and mostly dry through the period. Monday night
through Tuesday a closed low dropping over the desert southwest will
help strengthen ridging surface and aloft over the eastern CONUS.
This will send a backdoor cold front into our CWA. The resulting
cooler and drier air will limit rain chances over the eastern half
of the CWA Monday night and Tuesday but the chances for rain will
increase back across the whole CWA from the west going into
Wednesday. There are timing and evolution differences in the models
concerning the closed low and attendant surface low but an axis of
prolonged heavy rainfall is still expected to set up just west of
our CWA by mid week. The closed low is expected to lift out to the
northeast and open up into an upper level trough that will be more
progressive. As it does so, the axis of heavy rainfall will likely
shift east across our CWA producing several inches of rain. This
looks to occur Wednesday night and Thursday with dry weather
expected again by Friday. /22/


Jackson       57  80  62  78 /   1   3   7   9
Meridian      55  80  61  77 /   1   2   4  11
Vicksburg     59  81  62  78 /   1   6  14  10
Hattiesburg   55  82  61  80 /   1   2   4   4
Natchez       59  81  62  80 /   1   3   6   4
Greenville    59  76  58  67 /   1  15  30  18
Greenwood     58  76  58  70 /   1  11  31  21





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