Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 250445
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1145 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with just some mid clouds are expected at the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Winds
will generally be south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph with some
higher gusts Friday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 649 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Please see 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Current satellite and radar imagery shows TSRA west of all
terminals. This activity should stay west of all area terminals
and diminish by 25/03Z. VFR conditions will prevail for the
current TAF period, however MVFR ceilings are possible at MAF
after sunrise. Winds will veer to the southwest at most sites
tomorrow afternoon but generally stay under 10 kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge centered off the west coast of
Mexico and extending up into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. At
the sfc, a theta-E ridge runs N-S thru the area, w/50F Td or higher
backed up as far as KELP.  Mesoanalysis shows the cap eroding,
w/hires models initiating convection omtns after 18Z.  Forecast
soundings are similar to yesterday`s, showing steep mid-lvl LRs, a
dry subcloud lyr, and DCAPEs well in excess of 1000 J/kg, for a
continued large hail/damaging wind threat.  This looks to be
especially pronounced along/south of I-10, where deep-lyr shear of
around 45 kts is forecast this afternoon/evening.

Unfortunately, rain chances pretty much end after tonight as the
upper begins building NNE into the region.  An upper-lvl trough off
the west coast is forecast to make landfall Fri afternoon, and try
to nudge the ridge east into next week, but the ridge is not
budging, w/the low-lvl thermal ridge only strengthening and building
in from the west.  By 00Z Sun, all the long-range models increase
H85 temps to 30C or better, and keep them there thru the end of
their runs.  KMAF soundings have mixed down 17-18F the past few
days, which would argue for leaning toward the warmer end of the
solutions. The GFS is warmest, but we`re reluctant to go quite that
high w/the west coast trough muscling in and passing north over
the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  99  71 104 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       64 101  63 103 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         69  99  72 104 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  68  99  72 103 /  20   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  95  69  99 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          64  97  64 101 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          60  93  60  97 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           70 100  72 104 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         70 100  72 104 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           68 102  69 105 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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