Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 241717 AAA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1020 AM PDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...Morning Update...An upper level ridge over the Pacific
Northwest will weaken late today and tonight as a disturbance moves
through western Canada towards Montana. Overall, will see continued
dry conditions with variable amounts of high cloudiness. High temps
today will warm 6 to 10 degrees versus yesterday. Winds will
generally run 5 to 15 mph, though they could be locally higher in
central Oregon. Current forecast package covers these trends.
Updates focused on adjustments to afternoon high temps. Also made a
few tweaks to sky cover and winds. 90

.LONG TERM...Previous Discussion...The GFS and ECMWF still differ on
how fast the ridge will break down Thursday night and Friday.
Thursday afternoon both models show some moisture moving northward
along the Sierra Nevada Mountains in California. However the ECMWF
has very limited moisture and keeps precipitation in the Cascades
while the GFS brings showers and enough instability for
thunderstorms into central OR. I continued the existing forecast of
a chance of showers and slight chance thunderstorms in central OR.
The ECMWF is much slower and does not bring wraparound moisture from
the low into central OR until Friday afternoon. The GFS brings a
broad trough over WA and OR Friday through Sunday with the low
moving to the Dalles by Saturday afternoon then moving east Saturday
night and Sunday. The ECMWF brings the low east across CA into NV
with wraparound moisture in WA and OR through next weekend. Since
both models spread showers across the CWA I kept showers across the
CWA Saturday through Monday. There is enough instability for a few
thunderstorms Friday and Sunday during the afternoon/evening.
Ridging will build into WA and OR Monday night for drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...VFR conditions with only some high cirrus
clouds and light winds. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  42  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  76  45  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  77  42  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  77  43  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  77  42  80  42 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  75  41  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  74  35  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  70  38  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  71  39  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  78  45  81  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

90/76/93


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