Area Forecast Discussion
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
525 PM ChST Thu May 24 2018

.Marianas Synopsis...
Gentle trade winds and isolated showers continue across the region,
with little change for the next few days. Combined seas are generally
3-4 ft at the buoys.

&&

.Discussion...
Gentle winds and seas of 3-4 feet should change little over the next
few days, at least through next Tuesday. Lack of moisture in the
mid-levels will keep showers light and isolated, and trades should
be strong enough to push any island showers out over the western
coastal waters. But both the GFS and ECMWF are starting to show the
possibility of a more active pattern starting around next Wednesday
with trades building to moderate and moisture increasing as well.
Seas ahead of the trade wind surge should reach 4-5 feet by Tuesday.
Have kept the outlook portion of the forecast dry for now, but a
change may be coming next week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
A broad trade-wind disturbance can be seen near Chuuk and Pohnpei
this evening. This disturbance will keep wet weather near Chuuk thru
Friday night and Pohnpei until Friday morning. For Kosrae, modest
converging trade winds east of the disturbance can still spark off
a few showers and thunderstorms there thru Friday. This slightly
drier trend should also reach Pohnpei by Friday evening and Chuuk
this weekend. Farther east, drier moderate to fresh trades are
expected near Majuro thru Friday afternoon. Latest ASCAT and VIS
satellite imagery reveals a robust trade-wind convergence zone
between 4N and 10N, stretching eastward from near the Date Line to
beyond 160W. This feature is going to gradually slide westward over
the next several days. Therefore, anticipate inclement weather for
Majuro by later this weekend and the rest of the locations by early
next week.

Building trade-wind swell and wind waves will cause surf and seas to
rise across the region starting Friday evening. The risk of rip
currents will become higher along east facing shores on all locations
but surf on Kosrae may reach hazardous levels this weekend. However,
seas should stay below small craft levels.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Yap and Koror...
No major weather system is present across far Western Micronesia.
Nevertheless, divergent flow south of an upper-level trough over the
Philippine Sea will continue to couple with modest convergent trade
winds to trigger periodic convection near Koror thru Saturday. For
Yap, weaker surface winds along with drier air at mid levels should
promote pleasant weather there. A broad trade-wind disturbance
currently affecting Chuuk is expected to arrive at far Western
Micronesia this weekend. As a result, unstable conditions will
remain across the region into next week.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Middlebrooke/Chan



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