Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 241946
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
246 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Hotter weather expected to begin impacting the area on Friday. We
are again in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees across the area
this afternoon with a fairly well-developed Cu field. High-
resolution models continue to try to develop isolated showers or
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly from the Big
Country south into the Concho Valley and Heartland areas. We have
seen a couple light showers try to develop, but quickly dissipate,
so will withhold mention of this activity for now, keeping the
mention of precip in our western counties as was inherited. We do
have a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms in our western
counties, but this is dependent on these thunderstorms being able
to develop, which isn`t guaranteed, and coverage is expected to be
isolated if they do. Main hazards would be gusty winds, dangerous
lightning, and small hail. Expect to see a similar pattern to
last night, that if storms develop to our west, they will likely
weaken as they move east into our area. Lows tonight will again
be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.


For Friday, have continued with the hotter temperatures of mid to
upper 90s. However, we have struggled to warm the last few days
due to humid conditions, and afternoon clouds, so did not go as
hot as some of the guidance was suggesting.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

No major changes to the long term forecast with hot and dry
conditions to prevail. GFS continues to be a little hotter than
the other models, pushing over 105 at times through the weekend.
Not sure its handling either soil moisture or the afternoon cu
field that is developing each afternoon so won`t go that high, but
temperatures at or above the 100 degree mark still look on target.
Upper level high pressure only builds across the area all the way
through next weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  95  71 100 /   5  10  10  10
San Angelo  68  96  71 102 /   5  10   5   5
Junction  70  95  70 100 /   0  10   0   5
Brownwood  68  94  69  99 /   5  10   5  10
Sweetwater  69  94  71 100 /  10   5   5  10
Ozona       68  95  69 100 /   5   5   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

20/07



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