Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FGUS71 KALY 131451
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CTC005-MAC003-NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-
111-113-115-VTC003-025-262000-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
1050 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...Above normal flood potential for the western Adirondacks;
elsewhere flood potential is near normal...

The potential for heavy rain April 16th and 17th could lead to minor
flooding, however there is much uncertainty in amounts of rainfall
and snowmelt. Beyond that, temperatures return to below normal with
little in the way to indicate further large-scale rapid snowmelt for
the two week outlook period.

This is the eighth in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by the
National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to the
potential for flooding across eastern New York State, southern
Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County
Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the Hudson,
Mohawk and Housatonic.

This outlook is valid for the two-week period from April 13th to the
26th.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

Snow depths across Eastern New York and Western New England have
decreased significantly with snowmelt since the last outlook but
remain above normal in the Adirondacks.

Snow depths in the western Adirondacks range from 2 to 6 inches,
except 6 to 10 inches at elevations above 1000 feet. Snow water
equivalents range from 1 to 3 inches up to over 5 inches in the high
peaks. Highest snow water equivalents are found in the West Canada
Creek above Hinckley Reservoir and above the Sacandaga River at Hope
forecast point.

The southern Green mountains are carrying from nil to 3 inches of
snow depth, with 6 to 12 inches across higher terrain. Snow water
equivalents ranged from nil to half an inch at lower elevations and
from 2 to 4 inches in higher terrain.

The Berkshires and the Litchfield hills are carrying 1 to 4 inches
of snow depth, with nil to half an inch of liquid equivalent.

The eastern Catskills show patchy snow cover with widespread 1 to 3
inches of snow depth across higher terrain. Liquid equivalents range
from nil to a quarter of an inch.

Elsewhere across the outlook area, the ground is bare.

....RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...

Flooding due to river ice is no longer a concern for the season.

...STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day
streamflow averages across western New England and eastern New York
are below normal to the east of Interstate 87 and generally near
normal west of I-87. The Palmer Drought Severity Index is currently
designated near normal across the outlook area, with the exception
of "unusual moist spell" designations for western climate division
in Vermont and Mohawk Valley climate division in New York.

...WATER SUPPLY...

New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) water
supply reservoirs are near normal for this time of year; the system
as a whole is at 97.5 percent of capacity, which is 0.1 percent
above normal storage capacity.

Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoir levels in the
Upper Hudson/Sacandaga watershed are between two and a half and
three feet below normal elevation. In the Black River watershed,
Sixth Lake Reservoir is nearly 2 feet below historical averages and
Stillwater and Old Forge are within a foot of normal.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

The 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks for April 18-22 and 20-26
respectively both call for below normal temperatures. The
precipitation outlook transitions from near to above normal in the 6
to 10 day range to above normal in the 8 to 14 day range.

...SUMMARY...

Above normal snowpack remains in the Adirondack mountains.
The potential for heavy rain April 16th and 17th could lead to minor
flooding, however there is much uncertainty in amounts of rainfall
and snowmelt. Beyond that, temperatures return to below normal with
little in the way to indicate further large-scale rapid snowmelt for
the two week outlook period.

The ninth Winter/Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for Thursday,
April 26th.

It is important to remember that heavy rain can cause flooding at
any time of year. Extended hydrologic information will be included
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook when necessary at

forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=ALY

Observed and 3 day forecast river information can be found on our
web page at www.weather.gov/albany. Three to seven day ensemble
forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs.

$$

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www.weather.gov/albany

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